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Mesoscale Discussion 54
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...VA...NW TO NCNTRL NC...SRN MD

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 222142Z - 230345Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET
   AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NCNTRL NC INTO SE VA. HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF NW TO NCNTRL NC NEWD INTO SCNTRL AND NRN VA FROM
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   OVER MIDDLE TN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ERN SIDE
   OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NC. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
   ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN AN AREA
   WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS STRONG. AT THE SFC...TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN
   THE MID 20S F ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT MOST
   OBSERVATION SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WARMING WILL
   CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH MAY
   RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
   RAIN MAINLY FROM NEAR RALEIGH/DURHAM NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF
   RICHMOND ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL LIKELY
   EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS.

   FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS...THE
   FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BECOME ENHANCED AHEAD OF AND TO THE NORTH OF A
   WELL-DEFINED DRYSLOT MOVING THROUGH CNTRL NC. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP
   TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS.

   ..BROYLES.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35468071 35828138 37148083 38247966 38837874 39017727
               38787667 38477645 38037642 37497664 36957709 36377829
               35837964 35468071 

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Page last modified: January 23, 2016
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