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Mesoscale Discussion 54
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0054
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152100Z - 152230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm risk cannot be ruled out
   through late afternoon, though Watch issuance is not expected in the
   short-term. Later, into the evening hours, the severe risk will
   increase from the west, when Watch-issuance probabilities could
   increase across portions of the region.

   DISCUSSION...The southern fringes of antecedent continental/polar
   air continue to erode from the south, as encouraged by warm
   advection accompanying low-level southerly flow and pockets of
   filtered insolation near/south of a warm front -- analyzed from near
   Austin TX to near Huntsville TX. Scattered showers and isolated
   thunderstorms continue evolving amid warm advection, and deeper
   convective elements have occasionally deviated to the right of mean
   meridional flow. With additional diurnal boundary-layer
   destabilization amid middle 60s surface dewpoints developing
   northward, cells may sporadically ingest sufficient
   near-surface-based instability to support briefly invigorated
   updrafts. If this were to occur, sufficient deep shear amid
   effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 (near a zone of backed surface winds
   in proximity to the boundary) may support storm-scale rotation. As a
   result, an isolated instance of a briefly severe storm (capable of
   producing all severe hazards) could occur. However, the conditional
   and marginal nature of the severe risk will preclude Watch issuance
   in the short-term. The severe risk may increase across parts of the
   area later -- into the evening hours.

   ..Cohen/Guyer.. 01/15/2017


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32049580 30869554 30389625 30319714 31269752 32099706
               32049580 

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Page last modified: January 15, 2017
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