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Mesoscale Discussion 55
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

   Areas affected...Central/North Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152320Z - 160115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is gradually increasing across central/north
   central Texas.  Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail,
   and perhaps a tornado or two are the primary threats.  Watch may be
   required to address this potential.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last hour or so convection has gradually
   increased in areal coverage/intensity along the I-35 corridor from
   central TX, northward to near the Red River.  Much of this activity
   is cellular in nature with several deeper updrafts having the
   characteristics of supercells.  One storm has a longer history of
   rotation as it lifts north across Williamson/Bell/Coryell counties. 
   Weak supercells are now evolving northwest of Waco over
   Hamilton/Bosque counties.  Surface-based buoyancy is still quite
   weak across this region but dew points are gradually increasing and
   near-sfc based convection could yield a small but increasing threat
   for isolated tornadoes.  Even so, the primary risk should be locally
   damaging winds and marginally severe hail.  This region is being
   considered for a watch.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 01/15/2017


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29989851 32289824 33639761 33399618 31499642 29889719
               29989851 

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Page last modified: January 16, 2017
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