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Mesoscale Discussion 55
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NWRN
   TN...NERN AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 021713Z - 022315Z

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM WNW TO ENE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A PROMINENT SRN-STREAM
   IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS...WHICH IS ENHANCING ASCENT WITHIN
   AN EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR STRUCTURE ELONGATED FROM NERN MEXICO INTO
   THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE INTERACTION OF THIS IMPULSE WITH A
   NWWD-SLOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL FOSTER AN
   INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION FROM THE
   OZARKS TO THE SRN PLAINS TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
   AREA...PARTICULARLY AFTER 19Z. AN INFLUX OF DECAYING CONVECTION
   ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF A LLJ DEVELOPING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
   /E.G. 35-KT SLY FLOW AT 1.5 KM AGL PER SHV VWP DATA/ WILL ALSO
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

   WITH WET-BULB SFC TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
   REGION...THE THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY NARROW
   TRANSITION ZONE OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
   AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER -- AROUND H85 SAMPLED BY THE 12Z LZK RAOB --
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING OF DESCENDING
   HYDROMETEORS AND SUPPORT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER
   TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE WARM LAYER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL HAVE
   A PROPENSITY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TYPES OF SLEET AND SNOW.
   LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.03-0.08 INCH PER HOUR
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS TRANSLATING TO LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES
   APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR.

   THE WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MID-LEVEL DRYING FROM THE NW -- AS
   EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA -- MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPRESS THE
   NWWD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY AS
   THE IMPULSE GAINS LATITUDE LATER TODAY.

   ..COHEN.. 02/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35708977 36089095 36869004 37638828 37848702 37358707
               35708977 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2014
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