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Mesoscale Discussion 57
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ...AND
   THE NYC METRO

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 230508Z - 231015Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
   NORTHWARD...IMPACTING EASTERN PA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ...NYC...AND
   WESTERN LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING. RATES UP
   TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...AS AN 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN EAST
   TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH DEFORMATION ALOFT TO SPREAD
   MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SNOW
   HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY
   HAS REMAINED LIGHT/MODERATE IN INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...THE KDOX VWP
   EXHIBITS A LARGE/CYCLONICALLY LOOPED HODOGRAPH...INDICATING STRONG
   WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE APPROXIMATE 1-4 KM LAYER TO THE SOUTH
   OF THE REGION. MOREOVER...SFC OBS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ SHOW PRESSURE
   FALLS AROUND 2-2.5 MB/HR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING
   WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THUS...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FURTHER
   STRENGTHENS AND 850-700 MB FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...IMPROVED ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION PROCESSES WILL FAVOR
   SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT...MOST
   LIKELY AROUND 07-10Z.

   ..PICCA.. 01/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39727723 39707770 40017792 40607726 41057604 41227481
               41057410 40797346 39997411 39807582 39727723 

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Page last modified: January 23, 2016
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