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Mesoscale Discussion 59
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0059
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

   Areas affected...portions of southeast TX and the upper TX coastal

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161101Z - 161130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A small spatiotemporal window for isolated strong to
   locally severe thunderstorms will likely be confined from areas west
   through northwest of the greater Houston metro as storms move
   eastward through a moist axis.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the past 2-3 hours has shown
   transient circulations with the more intense updrafts as a
   discontinuous convective band moves eastward across east and
   southeast TX.  Strong wind fields are in place ---reference the KHGX
   VAD--- and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH is analyzed by objective
   analysis.  Despite the weak instability, the strong shear and ample
   forcing for ascent are at least promoting some weak storm-scale
   organization.  Nonetheless, the storms are moving through a
   narrowing wedge of richer low-level moisture and significant
   poleward moisture return into the lower Sabine Valley will likely
   not occur before the convective band moves through this region.  As
   a result, the strong-storm threat will likely decrease substantially
   once storms' move through the moist sector.  While a brief/weak
   tornado or pocket of wind damage cannot be ruled out, it seems the
   coverage of any severe risk will likely remain low and preclude the
   need for a watch given the limiting factors discussed above.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 01/16/2017


   LAT...LON   29259653 30689589 30649534 29459497 29259653 

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