MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL/NERN SD...SERN ND...W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL
   MN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 282009Z - 290215Z
   
   SUMMARY...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SNOW...WITH 1-IN/HR RATES...ALONG
   WITH AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A NE/SW-ORIENTED
   DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE WITHIN THIS
   ZONE WILL FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS THAT
   WILL AUGMENT ASCENT TO CREATE A NE/SW-ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.
   REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT IS
   UNDERWAY ACROSS CNTRL/N-CNTRL/NERN SD. THE SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO
   EXPAND NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
   BY 04Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOW -- WITH RATES OF AROUND 1 IN/HR -- WILL
   LIKELY COVER A 60-90-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR PIR TO 40
   ESE INL. THIS IS AFFIRMED BY CONSENSUS AMONGST RECENT
   HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE.
   
   IMMEDIATELY TO THE SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...MULTIPLE
   WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES MAY OCCUR. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER SHOULD
   SUPPORT PARTIAL/COMPLETE HYDROMETEOR MELTING TO YIELD SLEET/FREEZING
   RAIN AS PRECIPITATION INITIALLY FALLS. AMDAR FOR DESCENDING ROUTES
   INTO MSP FROM THE W SAMPLED 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7 C IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM LAYER. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
   SOMEWHAT LOWER ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
   SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE OF CONCERN. FREEZING RAIN RATES COULD
   REACH 0.05-0.07 INCH PER 3 HOURS. THE INFLUX OF DEEPER COLD AIR
   SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM SW TO NE WITH SNOW RATES
   LOCALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/28/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   48519291 48099179 47059216 45749525 44789717 43789922
               43470078 44290127 46249877 47369675 48389426 48519291