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Mesoscale Discussion 62
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0062
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

   Areas affected...From central and southern Arkansas toward the
   Arklatex area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162002Z - 162200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The area from central AR into northern LA and northeast TX
   is being monitored for possible storm development, and a threat of
   an isolated tornado this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front now into southern
   AR with temperatures and dewpoints rising into the mid 70s and 60s
   respectively. Just to the west, a slow-moving cold front was
   situated from northeast TX into western AR, with deepening showers
   and a few lightning strikes along it as of 20Z.

   Area VWPs show strong low-level shear especially along the warm
   front with 0-3 srh in excess of 300 m2/s2. This is overlapping with
   the instability axis of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE near the AR/LA border.

   The upper trough will continue to pull away from the area, with some
   veering of the low-level winds. However, through afternoon, there
   may be a window where storms can become strong enough to take
   advantage of the better shear, with a weak tornado possible. At this
   time, a watch is not expected to be issued unless storm trends
   increase beyond isolated.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 01/16/2017


   LAT...LON   32499461 33909370 34839298 35009235 34809188 34299138
               33849123 33309137 32729182 32369235 32189295 32109339
               32239444 32499461 

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