Mesoscale Discussion 0063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018
Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi...much of southern Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110229Z - 110500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity through
evening, with a brief tornado or localized severe wind gust
possible. A watch is not anticipated at this time due to expected
isolated nature of potential severe storms.
DISCUSSION...A moist and generally weakly unstable air mass has been
in place across the region for hours, along with moderately strong
southwest flow aloft. With little focus at the surface, storm
activity has been largely disorganized except for a few confluence
bands at times from southern MS into the FL Panhandle. Despite weak
surface winds, shear profiles have aided a few of these storms with
some weak rotation at times.
Recently, an increase in storm coverage has occurred over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, and now affecting parts of southeast LA,
southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These storms should continue to
shift northward with time.
Shear profiles are expected to become slightly more favorable over
the next several hours as a low-amplitude upper feature develops
northeastward. Instability will remain nearly the same, except for
some increase northward into central AL where MUCAPE is currently
very meager. Given the increase in storm coverage as well as shear,
and some upper support, isolated severe storms are possible. The
surface air mass remains marginally buoyant, and may support a brief
tornado risk with any sustained supercell, within one or more
clusters and/or embedded within a larger precipitation shield.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30218934 31038930 31888901 32458839 33128724 33028644
32538580 31948565 30768556 30268567 30108588 30168609
30248659 30168755 30138850 30218934