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Mesoscale Discussion 63
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0063
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

   Areas affected...Central and northern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 170036Z - 170630Z

   SUMMARY...Precipitation rates are expected to slowly increase this
   evening as temperatures mostly remain below freezing. An initial mix
   of precipitation is expected to transition to mostly freezing rain
   by late tonight, with rates up to 0.05 inches per hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...At 0030Z, a shield of precipitation is slowly advancing
   northward across Lower Michigan in advance of an upper trough and
   associated low pressure system moving out of the central Plains.
   Substantial dry air in the lower half of the troposphere, evident on
   the 00Z APX sounding, has limited precipitation rates thus far, but
   continued moistening will eventually lead to some increase in
   precipitation rates this evening as ascent continues within the
   warm-conveyor belt. 

   An initial mix of precipitation types is expected early this
   evening, especially with northward extent, given a relatively weak
   warm nose and potential for some evaporative cooling of the column
   before saturation is achieved. Continued warm advection should
   result in a strengthening warm nose and erosion of the subfreezing
   layer near the surface, resulting in a transition to primarily
   freezing rain by later this evening. Surface temperatures will be
   somewhat marginal, especially across the southern part of the MCD
   area, and a slow northward progression of the surface freezing line
   will occur as weak but persistent warm advection continues, with an
   eventual transition from freezing rain to rain possible from south
   to north during the overnight hours.

   ..Dean.. 01/17/2017


   LAT...LON   43298610 43498644 44038644 44488615 44748606 45068565
               45028517 45008466 44758396 44478346 43958308 43588291
               43278323 43098373 43048427 43058512 43298610 

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