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Mesoscale Discussion 63
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0063
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0829 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

   Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi...much of southern Alabama
   and the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110229Z - 110500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity through
   evening, with a brief tornado or localized severe wind gust
   possible. A watch is not anticipated at this time due to expected
   isolated nature of potential severe storms.

   DISCUSSION...A moist and generally weakly unstable air mass has been
   in place across the region for hours, along with moderately strong
   southwest flow aloft. With little focus at the surface, storm
   activity has been largely disorganized except for a few confluence
   bands at times from southern MS into the FL Panhandle. Despite weak
   surface winds, shear profiles have aided a few of these storms with
   some weak rotation at times.

   Recently, an increase in storm coverage has occurred over the
   northern Gulf of Mexico, and now affecting parts of southeast LA,
   southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These storms should continue to
   shift northward with time.

   Shear profiles are expected to become slightly more favorable over
   the next several hours as a low-amplitude upper feature develops
   northeastward. Instability will remain nearly the same, except for
   some increase northward into central AL where MUCAPE is currently
   very meager. Given the increase in storm coverage as well as shear,
   and some upper support, isolated severe storms are possible. The
   surface air mass remains marginally buoyant, and may support a brief
   tornado risk with any sustained supercell, within one or more
   clusters and/or embedded within a larger precipitation shield.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 02/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30218934 31038930 31888901 32458839 33128724 33028644
               32538580 31948565 30768556 30268567 30108588 30168609
               30248659 30168755 30138850 30218934 

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Page last modified: February 11, 2018
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