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Mesoscale Discussion 64
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle into far
   southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110916Z - 111045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong-wind gust and/or a brief tornado will
   remain possible over the next couple of hours. However, the threat
   should remain too localized for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Within a warm/moist confluent low-level regime, a line
   of thunderstorms has advanced eastward across the the
   central/eastern Gulf Coast this morning. Despite weak low/mid-level
   lapse rates, a narrow corridor of surface temperatures in the upper
   60s/lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s is yielding around
   200-300 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the line in Florida. Additionally,
   regional VWP data sampled robust mid-level southwesterlies around 50
   kt atop south/southeasterly near-surface flow. In turn, despite
   meager buoyancy, favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will
   continue to support transient rotating/bowing structures over the
   next hour or two. Indeed, at approximately 0900 UTC, KEVX displayed
   a clear TDS over Holmes County, associated with an embedded
   supercell structure within the broader convective band. The
   potential for a brief tornado and/or stronger wind gust should
   gradually diminish toward sunrise, as the line becomes progressively
   displaced from any substantive surface-based buoyancy.

   ..Picca/Edwards.. 02/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29658605 29978630 30308627 31078577 32408506 32528448
               32248418 31558426 30508455 29678523 29558563 29658605 

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