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Mesoscale Discussion 64
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281122Z - 281345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME RISK EXISTS FOR
   WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO INLAND.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 615 AM EST/1115Z...A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED
   CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   COLLIER COUNTY/MAINLAND MONROE AND THE LOWER KEYS...WITH A FEW
   LINE-PRECEDING SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND MONROE
   AND NEAR KEY WEST. AS A BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTION LAST EVENING...AN
   EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ARCS ACROSS THE KEYS/NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
   PENINSULA. RELATED TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY/PRIOR
   CONVECTION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
   ARE AROUND 2-4 DEG F COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHILE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...PARTICULARLY AT MIAMI AS
   PER LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA. THAT SAID...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH SHOULD
   GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS IN TANDEM WITH SOME
   MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THIS EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
   BETTER SUPPORT SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS AND AT LEAST
   TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED UPDRAFT ROTATION AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. SOME
   RISK EXISTS FOR WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO
   INLAND...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR/IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   25368192 25868158 26218088 26068003 25178012 24468115
               24398232 24918278 25368192 

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Page last modified: January 28, 2016
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