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Mesoscale Discussion 65
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the central Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111143Z - 111415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in thunderstorm activity this morning may
   yield a potential for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a brief
   tornado. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convective activity has slowly increased near the
   Louisiana coastline early this morning, likely aided by a minor
   increase in a south/southwesterly low-level jet, and this trend
   should continue across the central Gulf Coast this morning. As of
   1130Z, a marine air mass, characterized by surface dew points in the
   upper 60s to near 70, is making slow northward progress across
   southeastern Louisiana. Near/south of this boundary, modified
   forecast soundings and mesoanalysis data suggest around 500-800 J/kg
   of MLCAPE is present -- adequate for a few stronger updrafts.
   Meanwhile, southwesterly mid-level flow around 50 kt is encouraging
   modest organization/rotation within the strongest cores. 

   Despite a relatively convoluted pattern of surface winds, somewhat
   backed flow exists near the marine/outflow boundary, stretching from
   far southeastern Louisiana eastward to points just offshore the
   Mississippi/Alabama coast. The related subtle enhancement of
   low-level shear may yield a few embedded supercell structures and
   bowing segments, with an attendant threat for stronger gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado from southeastern Louisiana to far southern
   Mississippi/Alabama this morning, assuming a richer maritime air
   mass can move ashore here. To account for this threat, the 13Z
   outlook will expand MRGL probabilities to the southwest.
   Nonetheless, poor lapse rates and the predominance of veered flow
   above the surface will limit the overall severe threat, precluding
   watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Edwards.. 02/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29079042 29179072 29379072 29789029 30428918 30578865
               30588765 30448731 30258754 29758837 29338875 29108934
               29079042 

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Page last modified: February 11, 2018
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