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Mesoscale Discussion 65
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MA/SRN NH/NERN CT/RI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 150917Z - 151515Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- AS A SNOW BAND NOW OVER THE NRN MA/SRN
   NH VICINITY TRANSLATES SWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOW OVER NERN MA AND ADJACENT SRN NH ATTM...WITHIN A WARM
   ADVECTION/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
   /H85-H7/ LOW NOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS BAND IS
   FAIRLY WELL-DEPICTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS AND SREF PROBABILISTIC
   DATA...EACH OF WHICH PROJECT THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE
   BUT TRANSLATE SWD ACROSS MA AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS OF CT AND RI
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS LACK OF A MORE STATIONARY HEAVY
   SNOW EVENT ALSO MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITORY NATURE
   OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT -- WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD AND THEN
   NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
   AFTERNOON.  

   BASED ON THESE FACTORS...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST
   PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND WILL REMAIN OVER A GIVEN AREA FOR MORE THAN
   BUT 2-3 HOURS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL SNOWFALL IN ANY ONE LOCALE. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
   LIKELY FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

   ..GOSS/MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 02/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41656977 41267070 41387117 41877246 42837272 43027196
               42787049 42016991 41656977 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2015
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