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Mesoscale Discussion 66
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COASTAL AREAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312040Z - 312315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   EXIST THROUGH 00Z ALONG THE SWRN CA COAST GENERALLY NEAR THE LOS
   ANGELES METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. OVERALL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED
   TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
   OXNARD SSWWD INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
   40 KT AND WILL APPROACH THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA BY 21Z. NO
   LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING IT
   REMAINS VERY SHALLOW...AND WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
   LIMIT INSTABILITY INLAND. HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING WITHIN THE
   FRONTAL ZONE AUGMENTED BY ATTENDANT ESEWD-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. VWP DATA SHOWS A 40-50 KT SWLY
   LLJ IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SFC...AND SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL BE
   TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 01/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

   LAT...LON   34111876 34311849 33821752 33391713 33191732 33531775
               33711810 33771838 34111876 

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Page last modified: January 31, 2016
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