MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 290928Z - 291100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 12Z.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KS
   SWWD THROUGH THE OK PNHDL AND INTO FAR NERN MN.  A DRYLINE
   INTERSECTS THE FRONT NEAR P28 BEFORE EXTENDING WSWWD THROUGH WRN
   OK...NWRN TX INTO THE TX PERMIAN BASIN.  A CLUSTER OF TSTMS WHICH
   INITIATED ABOUT 08Z NEAR LBB HAVE SINCE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE
   WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD TO NEAR CDS.  WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A NOTABLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER EAST OF THE DRYLINE...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION.
   
   LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE RATHER
   CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT STORMS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
   THROUGH 12Z FROM NEAR THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NWRN OK
   SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  A PREDOMINANT LINEAR STORM MODE IS EXPECTED
   TO EVOLVE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED BY
   AREA VAD AND PROFILER DATA...A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
   WITH STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   33549990 34759976 36409949 36829903 36939829 36859760
               36189721 35299749 34439819 33759880 33449934 33549990