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Mesoscale Discussion 66
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0066
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0708 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

   Areas affected...Coastal plain of Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180108Z - 180315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal severe hail and perhaps a tornado can be expected
   along a frontal zone over the coastal plain of Texas this evening. 
   Tornado watch is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection appears to be the
   primary forcing mechanism for slowly maturing thunderstorms across
   the western coastal plain of TX.  Over the last hour or so
   convection has gradually deepened over Webb/Duval/Jim Hogg counties
   and updrafts are now producing lightning within several clusters. 
   00z sounding from CRP is very moist with PW on the order of 1.75
   inches and surface dew points across the warm sector are in the
   lower 70s.  While low-level shear is not that strong...more than
   adequate deep-layer flow exists across this region for sustaining
   rotating updrafts.  There is some concern that a few supercells will
   evolve near the quasi-stationary frontal zone and this low-level
   feature may locally enhance the possibility for a tornado along a
   corridor from Jim Hogg county, northeast toward Matagorda county
   this evening.  At this time it appears the severe coverage will be
   too sparse to warrant a tornado watch.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/18/2017


   LAT...LON   27629904 28689728 29149619 28749588 27509744 26979866

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