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Mesoscale Discussion 67
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 012045Z - 020045Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM.  RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE
   FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE SOON OVER SOUTHEAST CO IN
   RESPONSE THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BACKING
   LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION/UPSLOPE FLOW.  THE RESULT WILL BE A BROADENING ZONE
   OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SHALLOW
   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THIS REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP ACCUMULATION
   RATES LIMITED THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...RATES OF AROUND 1
   IN/HOUR APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...IN
   THE DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
   LOW.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALSO SUGGEST
   THAT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...WHICH
   WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..HART.. 02/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40210202 39910292 38930342 38190344 37730313 38050225
               38880144 39510102 40050131 40210202 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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