MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291141Z - 291315Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING AND
   PERHAPS TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AND A
   WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   DISCUSSION...11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   DSM SWWD TO TOP TO ICT AND INTO FAR NWRN OK WITH A RADAR-DERIVED
   MOTION OF 305/15 KT.  FARTHER TO THE S...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN
   STRENGTH AND NUMBER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
   AND NRN OK...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESSIVELY
   OVERSPREADING THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.  THIS
   ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY THE LATEST
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   OVER ERN KS.
   
   STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  TORNADOES WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS AND/OR WITH BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EVOLVING
   LINE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   37499630 38639518 39099489 39489384 38799315 37769313
               37289364 37239426 37139492 37189610 37499630