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Mesoscale Discussion 68
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IND/PARTS OF WRN-NORTH CENTRAL
   KY/SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL OH

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 042134Z - 050200Z

   SUMMARY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH
   THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING...GENERALLY 35-40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM UNION
   COUNTY IL TO ROSS COUNTY OH.  INITIAL PRECIP-TYPES SHOULD BE SNOW
   AND/OR SLEET...WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 05/00Z OVER
   FAR SRN IL AND BETWEEN 05/00-03Z OVER FAR SRN IND TO SOUTH CENTRAL
   OH AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KY.  THIS INCLUDES THE LOUISVILLE KY AND
   CINCINNATI OH METRO AREAS.  ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS...RATES UP TO
   0.1 INCH PER HOUR /LOCALLY TO 0.2 INCH PER HOUR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO TAKE ON
   MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THIS
   EVENING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENING INTO
   THE EVENING AS 60-90 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 60+ KT SWLY LLJ.  THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
   ASCENT AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
   /PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 1 INCH/ WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED
   TO AROUND 32 F OVER PARTS OF FAR SRN IND TO FAR SWRN OH /INVOF
   CINCINNATI OH/...SNOW AND/OR SLEET SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL
   PRECIP-TYPES WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE WET-BULB
   TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED LESS THAN 32 F.  AS AN ELEVATED WARM
   LAYER BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...FREEZING
   RAIN WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE BY 05/00Z IN FAR SRN IL AND
   ACROSS FAR SRN IND TO SOUTH CENTRAL OH AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KY
   BETWEEN 05/00-03Z.  THIS SIMILAR TRANSITION TREND IN PRECIP-TYPE HAS
   BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SERN MO AND FAR WRN KY...WITH
   FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THOSE LOCATIONS INTO THE
   EVENING.

   ..PETERS.. 02/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38168521 37698682 37438782 36898915 37128934 37738945
               38048915 38548771 38908608 39218531 39398450 39728329
               39268306 38808344 38548435 38168521 

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Page last modified: February 05, 2014
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