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Mesoscale Discussion 69
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0830 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020230Z - 020500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREATS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
   FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW NEAR WICHITA
   FALLS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW. SFC WINDS ARE
   ELY AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
   TO MID 50S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A
   DEVELOPING LINE OF ELEVATED STORMS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
   FREDERICK OK. AT MID-LEVELS...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80 TO 100 KT
   JET WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN AND CNTRL OK BY LATE THIS EVENING ENHANCING
   LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR RESULTING IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF STORM
   COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z FROM LAWTON TO OKC SHOW 90 TO
   100 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
   THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSFER THIS WIND TO THE
   SFC MAKING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALSO...MESOSCALE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM
   SUGGESTING HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35349906 34129912 34119785 34549651 35959658 36089749
               35349906 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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