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Mesoscale Discussion 70
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MS...SWRN AL...SERN LA.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 050158Z - 050430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS...WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/SMALL BOW FEATURES...IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING ENEWD AROUND 30 KT ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA WITH MRGL SVR POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   GUSTS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...01Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   FROM WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER EXTREME NERN MS...THROUGH ANOTHER
   WEAK WAVE/LOW BETWEEN JAN-PIB-MCB...THEN OFFSHORE LA BETWEEN
   ARA-PTN.  THOUGH CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEHIND COLD FRONT
   INLAND...PRIMARY CONCERN OVER COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE WITH PREFRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE BAND THAT EXTENDED FROM SMITH COUNTY MS SWWD
   ACROSS LAKE MAUREPAS AS OF 145Z.

   BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY ALTERNATING PATCHES
   OF RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE/SHALLOW MARINE-LAYER AIR...WITH SFC DEW
   POINTS LOW 60S F...AND PARTIALLY MODIFIED/VERTICALLY MIXED
   TRAJECTORIES FROM FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER GULF...DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
   60S F INLAND AND LOW 70S OVER OPEN GULF.  IN BOTH CASES...NEAR-SFC
   LAPSE RATES ARE STABLE BASED ON MODIFIED LIX/JAN RAOBS...BUT
   EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ARE TECHNICALLY SFC-BASED FOR MORE
   WELL-MIXED AIR.  BUOYANT AND EFFECTIVE-INFLOW LAYERS EACH BECOME
   MORE ELEVATED WITH INLAND EXTENT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. 
   THIS WILL RAMP ALREADY MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES DOWNWARD
   OVERNIGHT...BOTH INLAND AND WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE...HOWEVER...MOST
   INTENSE WIND CHANNELS WITHIN LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS MAY BEAR SUFFICIENT
   MOMENTUM TO PENETRATE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WITH DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG
   50-KT SVR LEVELS.  ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH LLJ...AND 45-50
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...WILL SUPPORT NONZERO SVR RISK FOR
   ANY SUSTAINED ACTIVITY THAT CAN MAINTAIN INFLOW ROOTED AT OR VERY
   NEAR SFC.  AS SUCH...OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ALSO HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
   FOR REMAINDER PERIOD.

   ..EDWARDS.. 02/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29889066 31278971 32108943 32438825 31998782 30928811
               30248885 29828929 29248957 29298982 29139024 29079051
               29149088 29889066 

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Page last modified: February 05, 2014
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