MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CST SUN FEB 08 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NM AND WRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6...
   
   VALID 090103Z - 090230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6 CONTINUES.
   
   THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR
   THE REMAINDER OF WW VALID TIME...THOUGH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES. 
   
   A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM THROUGH FAR W TX
   NEAR FORT STOCKTON. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25 KT. 00Z RAOB DATA
   FROM MIDLAND AND AMARILLO SHOW SCANT INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS...CAPPED BY AN
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BASED NEAR 700 MB. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. THE
   RESULTING STRONG DEEP CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND REMOVE THE CAP...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING
   A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
   ACROSS WRN TX.
   
   STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
   STRUCTURES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. AN INCREASE IN THE
   SWLY COMPONENT OF WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS LIKELY AS THE
   UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EWD ACCELERATION
   OF THE SQUALL LINE. GRADUAL DECREASE IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE
   THE SURFACE AND POTENTIAL FOR EWD ACCELERATION OF THE LINE WILL HELP
   SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING OR LEWP STRUCTURES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   31080295 31910314 33640331 35180353 35750334 35970255
               35650182 34280158 32960155 31170190 31080295