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Mesoscale Discussion 71
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0071
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

   Areas affected...central Louisiana through southwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190006Z - 190200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of instances of damaging wind and
   perhaps a brief tornado will persist through about 02Z. Overall
   threat is too marginal for a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a quasi-stationary front stretches
   from south AL through southern MS, central LA, to a weak surface low
   in southeast TX. A cold front extends from the low through far
   southeast TX and the northwest Gulf. Latest objective analysis shows
   the warm sector is only marginally unstable with MLCAPE near or
   below 500 J/kg in the presence of weak lapse rates. Showers and
   thunderstorms will continue developing in vicinity of the
   quasi-stationary front next 2-3 hours. However, overall tendency
   should be for storms to begin a gradual, but temporary decrease
   through mid evening within zone of weakening forcing for ascent in
   wake of low-amplitude shortwave trough moving northeast through the
   lower MS Valley. In the meantime, vertical wind profiles with
   effective bulk shear from 30-35 kt and modest 0-1 km hodograph size
   remain sufficient for a few bowing segments and marginal supercell
   structures, especially as storms interact with the stationary front.

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 01/19/2017


   LAT...LON   31929042 31649169 31059313 31529294 32229182 32449063

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