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Mesoscale Discussion 71
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN IA AND SRN MN

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

   VALID 021350Z - 021745Z

   SUMMARY...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY FROM ERN NEB
   THROUGH CNTRL IA AS OF 14Z WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE
   MORNING WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING
   WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB
   THROUGH CNTRL IA. THIS ZONE OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
   WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A PROGRESSIVE 150 KT UPPER JET. THE DURATION
   OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND IN MOST AREAS WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE
   PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
   ADVECTING NWD THROUGH SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
   DURATION WILL LIKELY BE FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN. RAP
   PFCS INDICATE 6.5-7 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY
   BETWEEN 700-500 MB...AND SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN
   LIKELY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NWD INTO NRN IA AND SRN MN LATER THIS
   MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN A
   DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER NERN KS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS
   WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40+ KT.

   ..DIAL.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   42459216 41989388 40889725 42099802 44139499 44239245
               43329167 42459216 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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