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Mesoscale Discussion 71
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0071
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

   Areas affected...Parts of west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182147Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe storm development
   appears possible during the 4-6 PM CST time frame, with severe hail
   and locally strong wind gusts the primary potential hazards.

   DISCUSSION...Weak to moderate destabilization is ongoing near the
   dry line across west Texas, with continued boundary layer heating
   and mixing.  Latest RAP output suggests CAPE is now on the order of
   500-1000 J/kg.  Low-level convergence appears weak, and mid/upper
   forcing for ascent unclear, but inhibition appears to be in the
   process of becoming increasingly negligible.  At least isolated
   thunderstorm development does not appear out of the question within
   the next hour or two, probably near or west/southwest of Midland,
   based on latest visible imagery.

   Given favorable deep layer shear beneath southwesterly mid-level
   flow on the order of 40-50 kt, any sustained convection could take
   on a supercell structures.  This probably would be accompanied by at
   least the risk for severe hail and localized strong surface gusts,
   before boundary layer instability wanes after nightfall.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 02/18/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31250339 32360272 33110158 33120058 32100184 31550236
               30670330 30880347 31250339 

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