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Mesoscale Discussion 72
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021554Z - 021730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULD
   COMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO
   UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
   REGION.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAY
   SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING.

   AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION.  WEAK BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
   BOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE
   ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
   BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF AN
   APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT.

   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A
   50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL.  THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD
   WITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTS
   OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36609134 37659086 38438924 37768815 35758943 34779069
               35009163 35709161 36609134 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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