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Mesoscale Discussion 72
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1007 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

   Areas affected...Southwest and Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200407Z - 200500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible late this
   evening into the overnight across parts of southwest and central
   Texas. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts may be associated with
   the stronger cores. Weather watch issuance will probably not be
   needed due to the marginal nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
   extending southward from southeast New Mexico to just west of Del
   Rio, Texas. A moist airmass is located to the east of the trough
   across southern parts of the Texas Hill Country where surface
   dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing to
   moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the
   1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery shows a plume of
   mid-level moisture extending north-northeastward across northern
   Mexico into  Texas. A subtle shortwave trough may be located near
   the Rio Grande River in Southwest Texas where thunderstorms are
   currently developing in the vicinity of Del Rio. This activity is
   forecast to expand in coverage, moving northeastward into western
   parts of the Texas Hill Country over the next 2 to 4 hours. The
   latest HRRR suggests that some intensification may occur as a line
   of storms gradually becomes more defined. Hail and marginally severe
   wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cores along the
   leading edge.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 02/20/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30920051 30430086 29990115 29410114 29140091 29120053
               29689911 30559827 32179821 32239948 30920051 

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Page last modified: February 20, 2018
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