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Mesoscale Discussion 72
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SWRN AL...CNTRL/SERN MS...SRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161946Z - 162215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS IS
   INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...AND A DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. HOWEVER...A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE -- 1006 MB -- IS ANALYZED
   JUST N OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
   THAT EXTENDS ENEWD/NEWD INTO NRN AL...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
   SWWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
   INDICATES SOME UPTICK IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONT FROM
   COASTAL SW LA TOWARD THE JACKSON MS AREA. CONVECTIVE LAYERS HAVE NOT
   YET ATTAINED SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR CG-LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

   HOWEVER...AS PEAK DIURNAL HEATING -- ALBEIT LARGELY LIMITED BY
   CLOUDS -- IS BEING REACHED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
   FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
   AMIDST AN INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
   UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS. WHILE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL STUNT BUOYANCY...SBCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG -- BASED ON A MODIFIED
   18Z JAN RAOB -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SFC LOW
   DEEPENS ON ITS TRAJECTORY FROM CNTRL MS TO CNTRL AL.

   WITH THE JACKSON MS AND NEW ORLEANS VWPS SAMPLING 40-45 KT OF FLOW
   IN THE 0.5-1.0-KM-AGL LAYER...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT MAY BE
   ENHANCED IN NARROW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS EVOLVING ALONG THE
   FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   WITH MESOSCALE VORTICES EMBEDDED IN CONVECTIVE BANDS -- ESPECIALLY
   AS THE SFC LOW FURTHER DEEPENS. HOWEVER...THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY AND
   THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT FROM STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE
   DETRIMENTAL TO THE SUPPORT OF A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE/SVR
   POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29979261 32278970 33168801 33438689 33308644 32578675
               31538823 29809097 29979261 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2015
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