Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 73
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 73 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MS AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT WRN TN...NE LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021641Z - 021845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. 
   TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN THE MORNING RAOB
   FROM JACKSON HAS TENDED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...PERSISTENT NARROW
   BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
   ZONES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION.  ONE PERSISTENT BAND HAS BEEN SOUTH OF
   MEMPHIS TN THROUGH THE GREENVILLE MS AREA.

   BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING INSOLATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
   LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN.  AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
   TRANSITION TO BROADLY CYCLONIC...AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
   FALL...SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION TO ALLOW FOR DISCRETE
   STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-21Z.

   GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE
   ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   TORNADOES...ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER STORM DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

   ..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32039178 34129072 35178938 34528852 32098948 30929147
               32039178 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 02, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities