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Mesoscale Discussion 74
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WV...VA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 162130Z - 170330Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS VA FROM
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
   INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT THE SFC...AN INVERTED
   TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE TN VALLEY NEWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
   CREST WITH ELY TO ESELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. AT
   LOW-LEVELS...A 60 TO 70 KT JET MAX IS LOCATED FROM NRN AL NEWD
   ACROSS ERN TN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD
   SRN VA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A MARKED
   INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN VA AT 00Z/TUE
   SHOW A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH JUST BELOW 500 MB WITH AN
   ISOTHERMAL PROFILE EXTENDING FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO NEAR 700 MB.
   THIS ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT...WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
   FOR HEAVY SNOW. SHORT-TERM MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP HEAVY SNOWFALL
   ACROSS CNTRL VA AROUND 00Z/TUE AND INTO ERN VA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
   THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE
   EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
   HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   36687602 36537896 36598274 37138395 37938351 38528248
               38818123 38737915 37787648 36687602 

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Page last modified: February 17, 2015
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