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Mesoscale Discussion 75
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southeast
   Mississippi...central and southern Alabama...and western portions of
   the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192110Z - 192315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some gradual increase in severe weather risk is indicated
   across the discussion area, with a severe storm or two possibly
   evolving over the next 1-2 hours.  In the short term however, watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a somewhat disorganized band of
   storms extending from north central Alabama southwest to
   southeastern Mississippi, and then southward across far southeast
   Louisiana.  A few stronger updrafts exist within the line, but any
   risk for damaging winds remains minimal at this time.  Meanwhile,
   occasional/more isolated showers continue ahead of the main band,
   with some low-level rotation evident at times per area WSR-88D
   velocity data.  A brief tornado is not out of the question in the
   short term, though risk remains low.

   Over the next few hours, modest additional destabilization of the
   moist boundary layer should occur, with broken cloud cover
   permitting some heating.  As ascent (as implied in water vapor
   imagery) shifts across the slowly destabilizing airmass, some uptick
   in storm intensity -- both within the main band and with isolated
   cells farther east -- appears possible.  While corresponding risk
   for locally gusty winds and/or a brief tornado or two may likewise
   increase, threat does not at this time appear likely to become
   sufficient to warrant watch issuance.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 01/19/2017


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   33108532 32488494 31088522 30188576 28868934 29198986
               30808956 31628836 32368767 33248714 33378582 33108532 

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Page last modified: January 19, 2017
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