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Mesoscale Discussion 76
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0076
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0556 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Alabama and the Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192356Z - 200200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong wind gusts may accompany a band of
   thunderstorms as it shifts eastward across portions of southern
   Alabama and the Florida panhandle this evening. Watch issuance
   currently is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last two hours, the regional radar mosaic
   indicates that a band of thunderstorms along the central Gulf Coast
   has developed a leading stratiform region. This evolution is likely
   in response to the arrival of strong west/southwesterly anvil-layer
   flow, favoring downstream hydrometeor advection/seeding. In turn,
   the overall strength of convection has trended downward, as modest
   stabilization occurs ahead of the system. Nonetheless, occasional
   weak embedded rotation within line segments may still materialize
   this evening, as suggested by a fairly straight hodograph in KMOB
   VAD wind profile data. These convective elements could encourage a
   few strong wind gusts, as positive theta-e advection from the Gulf
   of Mexico occurs ahead of the line. The tornado threat, while
   non-zero, appears minimal, as surface pressure falls (and resultant
   backed winds) remain displaced farther north.

   ..Picca/Edwards.. 01/19/2017


   LAT...LON   30288858 32018785 32038685 31928541 31818494 31578477
               31338475 30848461 30418462 29648481 29668522 30218667
               30178782 30288858 

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