MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 292237Z - 300100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TO CNTRL LA
   SHOULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY. TORNADOES /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
   TSTMS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FED BY UPSTREAM PW VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
   AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALL FAVORABLY
   INCREASE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP. SOME
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
   OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH APPEARING LIKELY TOO SLOW /BETWEEN 03-06Z/. IT
   APPEARS MORE PROBABLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL
   OCCUR BY THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
   TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   34979138 35159032 35038998 33999000 32889000 31909034
               31579072 31449119 31429158 31579236 32039278 32669263
               33549227 34979138