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Mesoscale Discussion 77
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN...AND NRN/CNTRL
   AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 022040Z - 022215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TORNADO
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN TN
   AND NRN/CNTRL MS THAT HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING NEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
   SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL...WITH AREA VWPS INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200
   M2/S2 ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND IN SOME CASES APPROACHING 400 M2/S2.
   THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WITH
   20Z RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MUCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-500
   J/KG...DECREASING FROM S TO N. HOWEVER...CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF
   MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG /50-60 KT/ LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG
   WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ERODE THE LINGERING
   CAPPING EVIDENT AROUND 600 MB IN THE 18Z KBMX SOUNDING. GIVEN
   TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE LINEAR LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...WITH ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A
   STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AL INTO MIDDLE
   TN WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG SHEAR WITH SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY EXISTS.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   32368830 34928799 36628699 37878655 37858548 36818521
               34988563 33438608 32018659 32318745 32368830 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2016
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