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Mesoscale Discussion 79
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN ALABAMA....MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND
   CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

   VALID 022331Z - 030130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW11..WITH THE HIGHEST
   NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW11.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS
   MOVED OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA OVER THE
   PAST HOUR...WITH A LIKELY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACROSS
   PICKENS COUNTY ALABAMA ATTM.  THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STORMS MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK
   TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP SHEAR.

   ELSEWHERE ACROSS WW11...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
   FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THIS
   LINE SHOULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TOWARD 02-03Z...AND
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKER IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
   THE WATCH.  SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING AIRMASS RECOVERY REMAIN
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE WW...ALTHOUGH THE
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP IN
   THE REGION /LIKELY AFTER 03Z/.

   ..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
   PAH...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32288835 32978855 34028834 35818769 37398695 37928642
               37948557 37798472 37168455 36178467 34758556 33588606
               32798629 32258687 32328780 32288835 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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