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Mesoscale Discussion 82
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ILLINOIS...W-CNTRL INDIANA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 210440Z - 210745Z

   SUMMARY...A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
   SHORT-LIVED NEAR I-74 TO I-70 CORRIDORS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR
   SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 07-08Z.

   DISCUSSION...W/E-ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BAND HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS CNTRL IL. WHAT WAS INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW
   WITH SOME MIXED PTYPES HAS TRANSITIONED TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
   PER 04Z METARS AT KSPI AND KDEC. WITH THIS BAND LOCATED ON THE NRN
   FRINGE OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   CENTERED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO OH/TN VALLEYS...SNOWFALL RATES WILL
   LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IS
   CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING WANING WAA /AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
   INCREASINGLY VEERED/ WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE ENTIRELY
   SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. MIXED PTYPES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR
   SEVERAL MORE HOURS FARTHER S /REF MCD 0081/. THE WRF-NSSL COMPOSITE
   REFLECTIVITY BY PTYPE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THE SNOW TO FREEZING
   RAIN TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND IN SUGGESTING THE SHORT-LIVED
   NATURE TO HEAVY SNOW.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   40019005 40008852 40018762 39918683 39668681 39408705
               39318779 39298853 39408979 39579015 39769030 40019005 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2015
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