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Mesoscale Discussion 83
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0850 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
   ALABAMA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

   VALID 030250Z - 030345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
   11...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA.

   DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW 11.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   OCCASIONAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
   PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  OTHER
   SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF WW 11 /ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
   ALABAMA/ ALSO CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITHIN CONFLUENT/UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR FLOW... AND MAY ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
   FAVORABLE STORM MODE AND STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-SHEAR.  PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY NEED A NEW WW AS THE TORNADO THREAT IN
   THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND THE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME.

   FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WEAKER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
   IS LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION
   CONTAINING LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR
   BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED AS STORMS ENTER WESTERN
   PORTIONS OF WW 11.  THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THIS CONVECTION
   REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. 
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...AND IS IT LIKELY THAT MUCH OF WW 11 MAY
   BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

   ..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32538845 33348857 34618815 36018750 36558702 36648639
               36578576 36468536 35948517 34788570 33278645 32578686
               32268728 32188769 32348823 32538845 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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