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Mesoscale Discussion 84
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MS...SW AL...SE LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12...

   VALID 030423Z - 030630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN THE WRN PART OF WW 12 WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE
   WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   ACROSS LA WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED IN SW MS AND SE LA. A
   LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   NEAR 70 F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WARM
   SECTOR WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. IN
   SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EVIDENT
   ON THE NEW ORLEANS WSR-88D VWP WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 70 KT. IN
   ADDITION...50 KT OF SLY FLOW IS PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE SFC WHICH
   SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
   BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO
   MAKE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED
   IN THE LINE OR WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
   LINE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30218796 30228776 30298752 30368743 30458746 30578738
               30738749 30888762 31048765 31258759 31258735 31408725
               31598713 31738707 31778690 32048690 32018712 32188732
               32268750 32138753 32148761 32018766 31988789 32028812
               32128804 32318797 32338843 33748826 33678848 33668871
               33808870 33808894 33728895 33718901 33598900 33578909
               33188909 33198919 33148923 33098931 32928933 32938973
               32648971 32648983 32288970 32008977 32029024 31769009
               31728995 31408999 31429008 31309006 31329095 31389120
               31349143 31219154 31139162 31059160 30989120 30729128
               30719090 30699090 30659061 30419051 30339034 30419023
               30359005 30258987 30188959 30108953 30068935 30198915
               30178894 30248868 30208839 30218796 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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