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Mesoscale Discussion 85
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0085
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

   Valid 210855Z - 211100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe weather including a tornado threat will persist
   across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi during the
   overnight.  The greatest threat for tornadoes in the short term is
   expected to be from the vicinity of BTR and eastward from Hammond,
   LA to Hattiesburg, MS with the increase in supercell development.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analyses /06-08Z/ indicated a developing
   mesolow, now located near BTR, with the strongest pressure falls
   from BTR to MCB, while this region and into southwest and
   south-central MS also has the coldest cloud tops and greatest
   lightning coverage/density.  The mesolow is expected to track to the
   east-northeast along a northward-developing warm front through
   southern MS to central AL (near or just south of a TCL-BHM line) per
   trends in mesoanalyses and HRRR forecasts.  Forcing for ascent
   associated with a progressive and compact shortwave trough moving
   into Louisiana at this time will sustain a low-level mass response
   across and downstream from WW 10.  This response is being observed
   per backed southerly low-level winds with an associated increase in
   low-level moistening and warm air advection.  These factors will
   further aid in the development of additional thunderstorms east of
   the main BTR-MCB storm complex into southeast MS and southwest AL
   through the overnight.  

   Further strengthening of vertically veering wind profiles and
   increasing deep-layer ascent per an apparent coupled jet structure
   with the progressive trough suggest supercells should increase in
   coverage and intensity across WW 10.

   ..Peters.. 01/21/2017


   LAT...LON   29449124 30539175 31379168 31879103 32518987 32928915
               32928835 31048845 29848835 29078862 28828910 28718955
               28858997 28779109 29179122 29449124 

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