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Mesoscale Discussion 85
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KY...WRN WV/VA...FAR NE TN

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 210920Z - 211415Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
   PARTS OF FAR EASTERN KY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WV...WESTERN VA
   AND FAR NORTHEAST TN EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
   CENTRAL WV...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SNOW. BY THIS
   AFTERNOON...WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG WAA IS OCCURRING AS A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
   LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
   MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS STRONG
   WAA WILL MODIFY THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH FORECAST
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WARMING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700
   MB. AS SUCH...THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO OR MIXING OF SNOW
   WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MCD AREA
   OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE RANGED
   FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND SOME
   PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING HOURS. AFTER 15Z...A TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MCD AREA.

   FURTHER NORTH...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING. RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH
   PER HOUR AT TIMES.

   ..LEITMAN.. 02/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   38058309 38608221 38938147 38958102 38768054 38298052
               37368089 36468166 35818244 35768320 36188361 36988366
               38058309 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2015
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