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Mesoscale Discussion 85
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0085
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

   Areas affected...far northern Oklahoma to central/eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 220102Z - 220500Z

   SUMMARY...Pockets of freezing rain, mixing with sleet, will continue
   to develop across the region this evening. Freezing rain rates up to
   a few hundredths of an inch per hour will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Within the entrance region of a powerful upper-level
   jet, showery activity has developed from the Texas Panhandle
   northeastward to the Wichita, KS metro. 00Z soundings from AMA, OUN,
   DDC, and TOP all depict a 700-500mb thermal structure potentially
   supportive of weak mid-level buoyancy, such that very shallow
   convection is expected to persist this evening. Additionally, weak
   warm advection and related isentropic ascent near 850-700mb will
   further support the development of precipitation.

   Related to this elevated warm advection, model guidance and
   mesoanalysis data depict a slow north/northwestward progression of
   the 850mb 0C line over the next several hours, and this is confirmed
   by a northward advance of a melting layer signature noted in KICT
   data. Along the northern fringe of the discussion area, sleet may be
   more common. Farther south, freezing rain potential will be higher,
   although some mixing with sleet may still occur, especially in
   heavier showers that favor re-freezing in the boundary layer.
   Regardless, freezing rain rates up to a few hundredths of an inch
   per hour will be possible into the early overnight, with freezing
   drizzle possible outside of heavier precipitation.

   ..Picca.. 02/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38359828 38819739 39029546 38939516 38609511 38259555
               37399681 36729748 36479796 36289874 36589898 36969903
               38359828 

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Page last modified: February 22, 2018
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