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Mesoscale Discussion 88
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031856Z - 032100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...IS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z.  THE
   NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW LINE OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW TOPPED
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO/THROUGH THE
   CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  NEAR AN APPARENT WAVE WITHIN THIS LINE...NOW
   APPROACHING THE COLUMBIA SC AREA...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
   SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS APPEARS
   LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
   THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...TOWARD THE FAYETTEVILLE NC
   AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z.

   DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS THIS REGION...INSOLATION...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTENING...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BOUNDARY
   LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  WITH AT LEAST SOME FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
   RECENT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EVIDENT IN THE COLUMBIA
   VWP DATA...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW FIELDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
   IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
   WATER CONTENT...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED...POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING...SURFACE GUSTS.

   ..KERR/KERR.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34328120 34818066 35118000 35347929 35227884 34627882
               33718072 33718148 34328120 

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Page last modified: February 03, 2016
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