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Mesoscale Discussion 88
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...FAR ERN TX...WRN MS AND SERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 212127Z - 212330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH
   PERHAPS A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM STILL POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS ERN TX
   AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
   WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES.

   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THIS FRONT...AS
   WELL AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO NRN LA WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY MORE
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LACK OF HEATING IS
   RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY. 

   RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN WEAK ROTATION IN SOME OF THE CELLS AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT...BUT NONE OF THESE INCIPIENT SUPERCELLS HAVE LASTED
   VERY LONG. CURRENT TRENDS DO SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY ALONG THE
   COLD FRONT...BUT UNDERCUTTING COLD AIR AS WELL AS MERGING UPDRAFTS
   WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. SMALL HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WIND PROFILES ARE STRONG...AND ANY UPSCALE
   GROWTH ALONG THE FRONT COULD INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 02/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31959500 32749379 33259261 33569153 33709103 33539052
               32719008 32069044 31229255 31009444 31359518 31959500 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2015
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