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Mesoscale Discussion 89
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL GA AND SC/WESTERN NC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 121344Z - 121815Z

   SUMMARY...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   PARTS OF GA/CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
   ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GA
   INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC...WHILE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON IN UPSTATE AREAS AND NEAR THE
   APPALACHIANS.

   DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR
   IMAGERY INDICATE AN EVOLVING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE AND EXTENSIVE
   MID-HIGH CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN/NORTH OF A STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR IMPLIED PER WSR-88D VWP/12Z RAOB DATA.
   AS SIGNIFICANT UVV/S OVERSPREAD THE REGION...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS A ROUGH
   SOUTHERN DEMARCATION OF THE MOST IMPACTFUL ICE/SNOW THIS
   MORNING...THE SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE AS OF 13Z CONTINUES TO MAKE
   A SLOW/STEADY SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT /APPROX 25 MILE CHANGE PER HR/.
   AT 13Z...THE 32F WET BULB LINE EXTENDS FROM W/SW OF THE ATLANTA
   METRO AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GA...PARALLELING
   I-16 TO NEAR MACON/STATESBORO GA TO NEAR-IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
   THE CAROLINAS.

   THE 12Z OBSERVED /PARTIAL/ SOUNDING FROM ATLANTA GA SAMPLED A WARM
   LAYER AROUND 850 MB/1200 M AGL CONDUCIVE FOR FULL/PARTIAL MELTING
   ATOP A SUB-FREEZING /AROUND -4C AT 500 M/ NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THIS
   SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SOME SLEET WITHIN A
   CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GA INCLUDING
   I-20 INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC. THE 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDING FROM CHARLESTON SC FEATURED A FULL-MELTING CONDUCIVE LAYER
   BASED AROUND 500 M ATOP A VERY SHALLOW NEAR/SUB-FREEZING LAYER.

   TO THE NORTH...SNOW /WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN/ SHOULD GRADUALLY
   INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST
   MODERATE SNOW BECOMING MORE COMMON PARTICULARLY ACROSS EXTREME
   NORTHEAST GA/FAR NORTHERN SC INTO NC INCLUDING THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
   GIVEN INCREASING SATURATION/UVV AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
   GROWTH PROFILE...LOCALIZED SNOW RATES COULD REACH 1 IN/HR BY LATE
   MORNING.

   ..GUYER.. 02/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34798537 35048436 35628327 35858125 35588046 35327865
               34857825 33557884 32418067 32528389 33978531 34798537 

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Page last modified: February 12, 2014
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