MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...EXTREME SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 012318Z - 020045Z
   
   TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND
   EXTREME SERN MS THROUGH 01Z. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   A SMALL...AND OCCASIONALLY BOWING...CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT
   CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS LIVINGSTON AND ASCENSION PARISHES INVOF
   A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
   SLIDELL WSR-88D DATA INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED REAR-INFLOW JET IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PASSED NEAR BATON
   ROUGE...THOUGH THIS JET CURRENTLY APPEARS ILL-DEFINED BELOW 5.5 KFT.
   HOWEVER...WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-50 KT PER SLIDELL
   VWP DATA...AND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...THE LINE SEGMENT MAY CONTINUE BE MAINTAINED TOWARD LAKE
   PONTCHARTRAIN WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALREADY NOTED OVER ITS SRN
   FLANK. WEAK DCVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A
   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
   STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO...CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE MARGINAL/BRIEF DURATION
   OF ANY SVR THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/01/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   29539056 29769102 30239114 30539087 30849016 30818953
               30038930 29658974 29539056