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Mesoscale Discussion 90
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032232Z - 040000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL MAY PRODUCE
   ISOLATED STRONG/DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE
   IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL GA TO THE CNTRL FL
   PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. THIS
   IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 250-1000 J/KG...THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY EARLIER 12Z RAOBS WILL TEND TO TEMPER
   CONVECTIVE-SCALE UPWARD ACCELERATIONS. VWP DATA AT VAX SUGGEST DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
   BAND...WHICH WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCIPIENT
   CONVECTION BECOMING QUICKLY UNDERCUT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DEEP
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT MAY SUPPORT BRIEF CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION...WITH LOCALIZED STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
   WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED POOR MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE-BAND-PARALLEL FLOW...AND APPROACHING
   NIGHTFALL WITH ASSOCIATED GAINS IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY
   WILL ALL CURTAIL THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 02/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30248510 31488338 31488255 31138228 30748253 30438295
               30158369 29978499 30248510 

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Page last modified: February 04, 2016
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