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Mesoscale Discussion 92
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MAINE AND NH

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 051712Z - 052315Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...WILL SPREAD
   NEWD ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND NH THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

   DISCUSSION...17Z RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES A 1005 MB SFC LOW TO THE
   SE OF COASTAL MA. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW OVER THE EAST COAST MOVES QUICKLY NEWD TO THE
   COASTAL CANADIAN PROVINCES BY TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT
   TO THE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT DEVELOPS
   NEWD AS WELL. BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL
   NEW ENGLAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
   WHICH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NEWD WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM MOTION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS
   COASTAL MAINE/NH WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. A DEEP
   SATURATED PROFILE THROUGH MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE PER 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS AT KOKX AND KGYX COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES
   AROUND 1 INCH/HR WILL BE COMMON FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE
   STRENGTH OF THE UPPER FORCING AND REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MA
   WITHIN ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY BANDS ON THE KBOX RADAR...LOCALLY
   HIGHER RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES
   SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY 22-23Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
   LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM COASTAL MAINE.

   ..GLEASON.. 02/05/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   43107056 42887086 43107136 43747080 44486995 45366731
               45056686 44666701 44086847 43726968 43407023 43107056 

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Page last modified: February 05, 2016
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