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Mesoscale Discussion 93
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 081124Z - 081730Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1
   INCH/HOUR BETWEEN 12-15Z /7-10 AM EST/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA
   AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA...WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS RATE TO
   PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
   ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA.  

   MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING A SEPARATE
   SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL
   AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN CT TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
   MA BY 15Z...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL
   RATES IN THIS BAND SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH/HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT
   WITH THE SPATIOTEMPORAL WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   MA...INCLUDING SNOWFALL RATES AND STRENGTHENING WINDS/BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS.  GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
   ISLANDS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS /SLR/ SHOULD BE
   AROUND 8 TO 1 ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN WETTER
   SNOW...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS COULD ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.  

   AT 11Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED AND RELATIVELY
   STRONG SURFACE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE NC COAST NEAR 35.5N/69W. 
   TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
   BANDS WITHIN THE OUTERMOST REGIONS OF THE WESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN
   PERIPHERIES OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...NOW MOVING INTO CAPE COD...
   SOUTHEAST MA AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.  THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS
   MORNING CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.  AN INCREASE IN UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
   WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   MA...RESULTING IN GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES
   WITHIN THE MESOSCALE BANDING.  IN ADDITION...AS THE SURFACE LOW
   CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF 70W LONGITUDE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK
   TO NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE TRAJECTORIES
   INTO EASTERN MA WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT
   SNOW. 

   GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS
   AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF MA INCLUDING
   THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT AND GUSTS
   OF 40-45 KT HAVE BEEN MEASURED SINCE 8-10Z AT KACK/KMVY/KFMH.

   ..PETERS.. 02/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   41096990 41167097 40897213 40837298 42007260 42517189
               42637149 42757075 42397021 42106992 41636982 41096990 

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Page last modified: February 08, 2016
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