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Mesoscale Discussion 93
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E-CNTRL AND NE TX INTO NWRN LA

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 231335Z - 231700Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
   POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.  A MIX P-TYPE WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
   POSSIBLE IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND FAR NERN TX.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 1330Z SHOWS A DISCONTINUOUS
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL AND NERN TX.  KCRS
   RECENTLY OBSERVED A FREEZING RAIN RATE IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH/HOUR. 
   THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION
   AROUND H7 AND IS IMPLIED VIA CHANGES AROUND THE MELTING LAYER WHEN
   COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z FWD RAOBS.  WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER BURSTS OF SLEET WITH
   SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER N-CNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING.  MODELS
   ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS AREA OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
   OVER N-CNTRL TX MOVING TO THE ENE TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE
   MORNING HOURS.  THE SRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD
   OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING.  INTERPOLATED THERMAL
   PROFILES FROM THE 12Z AREA RAOBS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
   IS POSSIBLE TO THE S OF WHERE SLEET IS FORECAST MAINLY FROM PARTS OF
   N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AR.  WET BULB COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL
   LIKELY DROP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS A RESULT...FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM E-CNTRL TX
   INTO NWRN LA MAY REACH AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS /LOCALIZED
   HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA/.

   ..SMITH.. 02/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31539711 31989695 32809474 32779399 32369362 31969395
               31259638 31209689 31539711 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2015
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