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Mesoscale Discussion 94
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...CNTRL MS...AND FAR WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL
   AL

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 240142Z - 240445Z

   SUMMARY...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT
   LEAST 04Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/HR
   WILL BE LIKELY. HIGHER RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS ACROSS CNTRL MS.

   DISCUSSION...A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVIDENT ON
   AREA RADARS AS OF 0130Z IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LIFT. LATEST SURFACE
   ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AS
   NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION...AND
   SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS BAND OF
   PRECIPITATION. 

   THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM JACKSON MS SUPPORTS FREEZING RAIN AS THE
   PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN A PRONOUNCED WARM
   NOSE ALOFT MAXIMIZED AROUND 850 TO 800 MB...AND A SHALLOW LAYER OF
   SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SFC. INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS
   WITHIN THE BROADER PRECIPITATION BAND WILL MOVE FROM NRN LA INTO
   CNTRL MS AND FAR WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL AS SFC TEMPERATURES FALL
   BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND
   FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
   LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RATES MAY BE HIGHER IN SHALLOW
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE JACKSON MS METRO AREA
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 50+ KT WIND MAXIMUM CENTERED AT 700 MB. BEYOND
   04Z...SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE CURRENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
   WILL SHIFT EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AL WHILE WEAKENING...WITH
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS BY 06Z.

   ..GLEASON.. 02/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31999266 32049317 32189361 32359340 32979226 33079133
               33088953 32998874 32788818 32498783 32078798 31908874
               31919161 31999266 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2015
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