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| Mesoscale Discussion 95 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF WI...CNTRL/ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF
MI...NWRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 301511Z - 302115Z
SUMMARY...AN AREA OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED BANDS CONTAINING SNOWFALL
RATES TO 1 IN/HR WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCING NEWD FROM NERN IA AND EXTREME SERN MN INTO
WI. THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE
PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ZONE...AND ACCOMPANYING
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS...ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD WITH TIME.
AS SUCH...THIS ACTIVITY -- MUCH OF WHICH IS SNOW -- WILL SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF WI FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW
WILL LIKELY ENTER THE CNTRL/ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND NWRN LOWER
MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH OF THE ASCENT THROUGH SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT EMBEDDED SNOWFALL
RATES TO 1 IN/HR.
ACROSS NWRN PARTS OF LOWER MI...MIXED PRECIPITATION -- INCLUDING
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN -- MAY INITIALLY OCCUR THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AS THE GAYLORD 12Z RAOB INDICATES AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE AROUND 3C NEAR 850 MB. HOWEVER...AS THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE COOLS...SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RATES TO 1 IN/HR POSSIBLE.
..COHEN.. 01/30/2013
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 46618451 45798416 44698564 43468802 42798958 42959073
44029102 44989037 46148876 46538707 46618451
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