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Mesoscale Discussion 95
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...SERN KS...EXTREME
   NERN OK

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 140940Z - 141545Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE
   PRE-DAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SLEET AND FREEZING
   RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MID-MO VALLEY. REGIONAL VWP DATA IMPLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA
   ACCOMPANYING A LLJ ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS TO
   THE OZARKS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THE SPATIAL GAP BETWEEN
   THE IMPULSE AND LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ WILL
   CONTINUE TO NARROW DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE LLJ
   ENCOURAGES POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF MODESTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR.
   ACCORDINGLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING...WITH RADAR
   RETURNS ALREADY NOTED FROM PARTS OF ERN KS TO THE OZARKS.

   SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...
   WITH RELATED DRY AIR INITIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO HYDROMETEOR
   SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL
   FOSTER COLUMNAR SATURATION DURING THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME...WITH
   PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER -- SAMPLED
   BY THE 00Z SGF RAOB BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY
   WAA ALONG THE LLJ...SUPPORTING PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING OF
   DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. GIVEN SUB-FREEZING WET-BULB SFC
   TEMPERATURES...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY. MINIMUM
   BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -5C SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET IN
   MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WHERE A
   RELATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND VICINITY. 

   FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES LOCALLY REACHING ONE-TENTH
   INCH PER HOUR. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOME
   EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD
   LOCALLY GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD.

   ..COHEN.. 02/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
   ICT...

   LAT...LON   35869147 36139374 37099504 37759534 38319506 38359370
               37669094 36828977 36119006 35869147 

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Page last modified: February 14, 2016
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