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Mesoscale Discussion 95
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 122341Z - 130515Z

   SUMMARY...A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD
   THIS EVENING WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THE MOST PERSISTENT BAND
   SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT
   FROM NWRN NC TO CNTRL VA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z AND INTO THE WASHINGTON
   DC METRO AREA BY 06Z.

   DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A BROAD AREA OF
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS FAR N AS THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN VA/WV. 12Z
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE GENERALLY APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH NRN
   EXTENT /OUTSIDE OF THE NSSL-WRF/ COMPARED TO RADAR/SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS. CONSENSUS OF CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE
   APPEAR CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 15Z SREF MEAN AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTIVE
   OF SNOWFALL RATES AVERAGING 1-2 IN/HR. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
   INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS AND
   STILL AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST
   PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY EMANATE NEWD FROM THE NWRN
   NC/SWRN VA AREA TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...
   MRX...

   LAT...LON   35638146 36048031 36827839 37397723 38667543 39367529
               39667567 39847641 39867720 39547819 38897930 37868046
               37118118 36278188 35758193 35638146 

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Page last modified: February 13, 2014
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