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Mesoscale Discussion 95
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX / EXTREME SERN OK AND NWRN LA /
   SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 250932Z - 251530Z

   SUMMARY...MIXED P-TYPE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS
   INITIALLY FORECAST FROM NEAR THE N-CNTRL TX I-35 CORRIDOR EWD INTO
   THE ARKLATEX.  FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.15 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
   POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOW --RATES APPROACHING/AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR-- IS POSSIBLE
   GENERALLY AFTER 11 UTC OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX AND EVENTUALLY
   FARTHER ENE INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD OVER
   N-CNTRL TX INTO NERN TX AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OVER
   FAR W TX.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS TEMPS AROUND 32 FROM THE
   N-SIDE OF THE DFW METROPLEX AND INCLUDING AREAS E INTO NERN TX.  THE
   00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A SIZABLE LAYER AOA FREEZING /H85-H7/. 
   MOISTENING AND ASCENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LAYER HAS CONSIDERABLY
   COOLED THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS A FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS
   BEGINNING OVER NERN TX.  FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.15 INCH PER 3
   HOURS SEEM LIKELY WITH HEAVIER BURSTS 0.10-0.15 INCH PER 1 HOUR
   POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS BASED ON OBSERVED RATES NEAR DFW. 
   ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL COLUMNAR COOLING IS FORECAST AND A EVENTUAL
   TRANSITION TO MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS EXPECTED.  

   AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT /DCVA/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING ALONG THE N-SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS TOWARDS
   MORNING...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /1 INCH PER
   HOUR/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM
   N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AR.

   ..SMITH.. 02/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32789332 32459469 32469605 32879677 33099772 33509771
               33679634 33949450 33919272 33609241 33139255 32789332 

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Page last modified: February 25, 2015
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