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Mesoscale Discussion 95
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

   Valid 212305Z - 220000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

   SUMMARY...Limited severe/tornado risk lingers across remaining
   portions of Tornado Watch 14 across parts of the Florida Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...As the more vigorous portion of the broken band of
   convection stretching from the South Carolina/Georgia coastal waters
   westward across the Florida Panhandle continues to shift farther off
   the Georgia coast, less-organized storms persist westward to the
   Calhoun/Bay/Gulf county area of Florida.  Storms are ongoing near
   and just to the cool side of convective outflow, where sufficient
   CAPE and ample shear persist.  While short-term convective trends
   have remained generally unchanged -- i.e. storms sub-severe,
   increasing large-scale ascent is noted farther west into southeast
   portions of Louisiana/Mississippi per WV and radar loops.  

   At this time, it appears that a relative minimum in severe risk may
   persist through the scheduled 22/00Z expiration of Tornado Watch 14.
   However, an anticipated increase in risk later this evening may
   require additional WW issuance near or to the northwest of the
   current watch.

   ..Goss.. 01/21/2017


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30668350 29818438 29528517 30138598 30148666 30498651
               30688574 30468417 30668350 

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