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Mesoscale Discussion 96
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW AR...NRN MS...NW/N-CNTRL AL

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 251717Z - 252115Z

   SUMMARY...AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM SW AR EWD INTO N-CNTRL AL IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
   AFTER THIS TRANSITION...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
   BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
   ACROSS SE AR AND FAR NE LA IS SNOW WHILE PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS
   FARTHER E IS STILL RAIN -- I.E. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS ROUGHLY THE MS
   RIVER. THIS RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AS THE
   MID-LEVELS COOL IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL TX. ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE
   MOVES EWD...THE SYSTEM WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE NEUTRAL OR POSSIBLY
   A SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT. RESULTANT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW -- SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER
   HOUR -- ONCE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. BEST ESTIMATES PLACE
   THIS TRANSITION LINE OVER CNTRL MS BY 19Z AND NW AL BY 21Z. GIVEN
   THE SENSITIVITY OF PRECIP TYPE CHANGES TO SMALL TEMPERATURE
   CHANGES...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS PROBABLE BEFORE A TRUE
   TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

   ..MOSIER/DARROW.. 02/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34229198 34539035 34718886 34728758 34698732 34648696
               34558678 34358666 34058674 33658694 33118743 32858779
               32828801 32648903 32668993 32659137 32689213 33089284
               33459288 33809272 34229198 

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Page last modified: February 25, 2015
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