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Mesoscale Discussion 96
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...FAR SRN INDIANA...WRN/CNTRL
   KY...FAR NRN TN...FAR SERN MO

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 141314Z - 141815Z

   SUMMARY...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
   SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AREA RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL A
   BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARKS AND VICINITY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
   HOURS. THE 12Z SGF RAOB SAMPLED AROUND 150 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR A
   PARCEL ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...WITH A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE
   WITH HEIGHT IMPLYING WAA-DRIVEN ASCENT. PRESENTLY...THE
   AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE
   OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS...WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
   ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO. THIS IS A MANIFESTATION OF THE
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER SAMPLED BY THE SGF RAOB...WHICH HAS BEEN
   SUPPORTING UPSTREAM WINTER MIXED PRECIP TYPES AS ADDRESSED IN SWOMCD
   0095.

   SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF THERMAL FIELDS BETWEEN 12Z ILX AND SGF
   RAOBS SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO
   PROGRESSIVELY COLDER PROFILES ALOFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
   EWD-SPREADING BAND OF SNOW FROM PARTS OF SRN IL/INDIANA AND
   WRN/CNTRL KY DURING THE MORNING. FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT RELATED TO THE
   INTERACTION OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND
   LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS
   BAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR
   IN SOME LOCATIONS.

   OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO FLANK THE SRN END OF
   THE PRECIP SHIELD FROM PARTS OF SERN MO TO FAR WRN KY AND EWD ALONG
   THE TN/KY BORDER VICINITY. IN THIS REGION...PARTIAL TO COMPLETE
   MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS WITHIN THE WAA-ENHANCED ELEVATED
   WARM LAYER WILL RE-FREEZE AS THEY INTERACT WITH SUB-FREEZING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES. FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.02 TO 0.05
   INCH PER HOUR AND SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES TO ONE-TENTH INCH PER
   HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE -- HIGHEST IN CONVECTIVE CELLS POTENTIALLY
   WITH LIGHTNING.

   ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
   MORNING...AS CONVECTIVE PRECIP REGENERATION IS SUSTAINED ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND VICINITY.

   ..COHEN.. 02/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36578962 37418986 37908958 38088866 37888720 37398571
               36758550 36468625 36418890 36578962 

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Page last modified: February 14, 2016
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