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Mesoscale Discussion 97
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0097
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana/southern Mississippi and

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 15...

   Valid 220005Z - 220130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 15 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/tornado threat is expected to steadily increase
   over the next few hours in/near Tornado Watch 15.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered strong/severe storms
   increasing from the northwest Louisiana vicinity southeast across
   the New Orleans area, near a warm front arcing
   northwest-to-southeast across this region.  A moist/buoyant boundary
   layer (dewpoints into the low 70s) continues to spread slowly
   northward in conjunction with the advancing warm front, which should
   remain a focus for continued convective development/increase over
   the next several hours.

   As the left exit region of a 100 kt mid-level jet streak spreads
   eastward across the area and low-level winds likewise increase,
   shear will favor intense/rotating updrafts.  This in conjunction
   with backed surface flow near/just north of the warm front will
   enhance the overall environment with respect to severe risk --
   including the possibility for strong/long-lived tornadoes.  We will
   continue to monitor northward progression of the warm front and
   associated convective evolution, with an eye toward
   future/additional tornado watch issuance north and east of WW 15
   (into central Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and
   possibly parts of the Florida Panhandle).

   ..Goss.. 01/22/2017


   LAT...LON   31958937 31208801 29718820 29498974 30049197 30849270
               32169205 32259082 31958937 

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