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Mesoscale Discussion 97
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / WRN AND CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 151002Z - 151600Z

   SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
   EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND LATER TOWARDS AND
   AFTER DAYBREAK FROM THE CHARLOTTE VICINITY TO THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE.
   FREEZING-RAIN RATES AT OR ABOVE 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS FORECAST.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WSW-ENE
   ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SRN MIDDLE TN MOVING
   ENEWD TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  A STRONG WAA
   REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD/STRENGTHEN E OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING
   ATOP A COLD DOME IN PLACE E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE 00Z GSO RAOB
   SHOWED A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.  GRADUAL MOISTENING
   FROM THE W AND S HAS LIKELY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUAL COLUMNAR
   SATURATION/WET BULB COOLING IS EXPECTED.  THERMAL STRATIFICATION OF
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WARM LAYER ABOVE 0 DEG
   C BETWEEN H9-H85 AND ADDITIONAL WARMING AROUND THIS LAYER WILL FAVOR
   A TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO SLEET AND
   LATER FREEZING RAIN OCCURS OVER NWRN NC.  PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
   PROBABLY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SWATH
   OF HIGHER RATES OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

   ..SMITH.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36357826 36228307 35488395 35318292 35717803 36357826 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2016
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