Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 98
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 98 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151127Z - 151400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED/MRGL ENOUGH DURING
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS THAT WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD APPROXIMATELY
   20 KT...WITHIN SLOWLY EWD-SHIFTING PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT ABOVE
   SFC.   THAT CORRIDOR EXTENDS ATTM FROM CENTRAL MS SSWWD ACROSS MCB
   AREA AND SERN LA TO GULF S OF ARA.  CONVECTION IS MOST CONCENTRATED
   IN MS PORTION OF THIS UVV ZONE...THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER S
   ALSO MAY POSE SOME MRGL SVR RISK.  SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
   ISOLATED HAIL AND STG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
   VERY CONDITIONAL/LOW ATTM DUE TO LACK OF MORE INSTABILITY AT
   SFC...THOUGH THAT RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES FROM BOTH THETAE ADVECTION AND POCKETS
   OF SUSTAINED INSOLATION.

   SUBTLE CONFLUENCE OF 850-MB STREAMLINES IS APPARENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION IN COMBINATION OF PLANAR VWP PLOTS AND RAP ANALYSES AT THAT
   LEVEL...COLLOCATED WITH AXIS OF 35-40-KT LLJ.  THAT CONFLUENCE ZONE
   SHOULD SHARPEN THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN
   MS AND SERN LA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z PRIOR TO AFOREMENTIONED
   DESTABILIZATION.  LATTER WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT AMIDST WEAK MUCINH AND MUCAPE GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
   INVOF LA/MS BORDER AND SERN LA...DECREASING WITH NWD EXTENT. 
   MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USED TO DERIVE THOSE VALUES TO NOT INCLUDE
   BAD THERMODYNAMIC OBSERVATIONS AT STATION 1R7 IN LINCOLN
   COUNTY...WHICH HAS ERRONEOUSLY REPORTED 71-73 F DEW POINTS IN PAST 2
   HOURS.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH SRH
   AROUND 100-200 J/KG IN 0-1-KM LAYER AND 200-300 J/KG IN 0-3-KM
   LAYER...PER MODIFIED LIX VWP.  35-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES
   SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THIS AREA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.  

   THOUGH SVR THREAT IN NEAR TERM IS LIMITED...RISK SHOULD RAMP UP 
   LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.  MORE DETAILS WILL BE OFFERED ON
   THAT SCENARIO IN 13Z SPC CONVECTIVE DAY-1 OUTLOOK.

   ..EDWARDS.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29469182 30919138 31429093 32269015 32458953 32288919
               31868868 31438863 30988888 30548943 29959025 29119091
               29369140 29389121 29529138 29739157 29469182 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 15, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities