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Mesoscale Discussion 99
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252143Z - 252345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AMIDST WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AS
   SUCH...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AIRMASS S OF THE FL PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MODIFY AS A
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 70 MI SSE OF MOB
   -- APPROACHES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE WITH THE WARM SECTOR SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
   AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AROUND 00Z. MATURING CYCLONE WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY-STACKED...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK
   SHEAR TOPPING 80 KTS. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.

   MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW FAR
   INLAND THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TROUGH.
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..MOSIER/HART/GRAMS.. 02/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30268603 30458599 30718540 30858505 30888465 30788435
               30668426 30198422 29868430 29738469 29758527 29868540
               30208572 30268603 

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Page last modified: February 25, 2015
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