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Mesoscale Discussion 99
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST / SWRN INTO CNTRL LA / SWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151341Z - 151615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE THIS MORNING.  THE TIMING IS UNCLEAR BUT AN EVENTUAL NEED
   FOR A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS FROM
   THE UPPER TX COAST NEWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF LA.  THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS POCKETS OF HEATING
   COUPLED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO
   MODERATE BUOYANCY AND REDUCED MLCINH BY MID-LATE MORNING. 
   FURTHERMORE...SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION IN THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS WILL LEND SOME INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
   WINDS.  THE RISK FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS /ONCE TEMPS RISE INTO
   THE MID-UPPER 60S/ AND INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR ONE OR MORE
   TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM BUT INCREASE AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES FURTHER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
   THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
   SEVERAL STORMS POSING AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT...SHORT-TERM
   OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29839425 31149322 32079194 31868969 31218906 31068973
               30749191 29809335 29839425 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2016
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