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Mesoscale Discussion 102
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 151846Z - 152345Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
   NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
   A PERIOD OF SLEET TO THEN FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO SEVERAL
   HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD
   EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL
   ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AND CONTINUED/INCREASING
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS A
   RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARDS
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WARM-AIR
   ADVECTION ALOFT...A MELTING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS QUICKLY
   NORTH...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...FOLLOWED
   BY FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. KDOX CC DATA
   CURRENTLY DEPICT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MELTING LAYER
   STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE W/NWWD TO NEAR DC. BASED ON KFCX
   DATA...THIS TRANSITION ZONE THEN BENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
   LEWISBURG WV. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL ADVANCE
   MORE RAPIDLY N/NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN
   LIKELY OVERSPREADING THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO NYC OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. INTO THIS EVENING...SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA WILL ALSO
   TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE MELTING LAYER PUSHES
   FARTHER N/NW. FREEZING RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
   AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SFC
   WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TEMPS ABOVE
   FREEZING...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN.

   ..PICCA.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37538045 38597947 39517783 41237540 41117456 40797418
               40327434 39247516 37977637 37317769 37257970 37538045 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2016
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