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Mesoscale Discussion 103
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF S-CNTRL/SERN VA AND THE LOWER DELMARVA
   PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 260556Z - 261200Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR BECOMING COMMON THROUGH
   12Z.

   DISCUSSION...A SFC LOW ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA AS OF 0530Z WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 12Z AS
   AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES. AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES
   MOVES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...BOTH COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE
   LOW-LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT MAINLY HEAVY SNOW.

   TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL INTO SERN VA ARE ALREADY
   BELOW FREEZING AS OF 0530Z WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS
   ONGOING...AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z AS NLY TO NELY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
   THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. WHILE RESIDUAL DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 00Z
   WAL SOUNDING WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN VA AND THE
   LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
   ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO SO WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF
   PRECIPITATION ONSET. 

   STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWFALL
   RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR SERN VA SUGGEST THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET
   AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES AS SOME WARMING MAY OCCUR IN THE
   850-700 MB LAYER...AND SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING.
   SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
   THE DISCUSSION AREA. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
   12Z AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN
   GA/FAR NWRN SC MOVES OVER THE AREA.

   ..GLEASON.. 02/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36557887 36618014 37647820 38147699 38437577 38477501
               37927520 37107576 36807650 36557734 36557887 

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Page last modified: February 26, 2015
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