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Mesoscale Discussion 104
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0104
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Southern Georgia...central
   Florida Panhandle into far northern Florida...and perhaps part of
   southern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 220755Z - 220900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be coordinated soon for portions
   of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle into far North FL, much of
   southern GA, and perhaps into parts of southern SC.  Severe storms
   producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will continue to
   develop through early Sunday morning across these areas.

   DISCUSSION...A progressive shortwave trough moving through AL, at
   this time, per water-vapor imagery will move into Ga overnight
   approaching SC by daybreak.  Large-scale ascent associated with
   height falls and dpva attendant to this trough will support
   additional strong to severe storm development as further
   destabilization occurs across the discussion area.  Area VWPs
   indicated some backing of low-level winds at TAE/JAX allowing
   moisture-rich air (surface dew points in the mid-upper 60s) to
   spread into southern GA, with a dew point of 70 F already observed
   in far southwest GA.  Surface observations also indicated strong
   pressure falls (2.5-5 mb per 2-hrs) across east-central
   AL/west-central GA border area where analyses suggest mesolow
   development along the warm front in this region.  This front
   extended east across southern GA.

   WSR-88D ABY VWP indicated strengthening deep-layer winds with near
   50 kt at 0.5 km and around 70 kt at 2 km. This VWP and objective
   analyses reflected this with a strong increase of effective SRH to
   current values of 400-500 m2/s2 across the FL Panhandle, southeast
   AL into southern GA. This is more than sufficient for tornadic
   supercells, with severe storms expected to spread across the
   discussion area as the developing mesolow tracks into southern GA
   toward southern SC.

   ..Peters/Thompson.. 01/22/2017


   LAT...LON   30318543 31718547 32088451 32038346 32298219 32408164
               32178138 31488145 31208141 30778164 30438211 30388343
               30288434 30318543 

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