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Mesoscale Discussion 104
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN AND CNTRL AL...WRN
   FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...15...

   VALID 151951Z - 152145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14...15...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
   AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   FROM  SRN LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MS INTO SRN AND
   CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING 1005 MB LOW JUST
   TO THE WEST OF MERIDIAN MS WITH A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
   EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AL. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CELLS IS ONGOING
   TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
   ZONE OF CONFLUENCE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING NEAR THE
   SFC LOW EXTENDING SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH INTO SE LA. THE WARM SECTOR
   IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS WWD INTO
   SRN LA JUST AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. A 40 TO 60 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA NEWD
   ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO NCNTRL AL. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
   SHIFT EWD INTO SRN MS AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
   WILL SUSTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE
   ERN PART OF WW 14 EWD ACROSS WW 15. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTAIN WIND DAMAGE AND HAVE
   AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD
   ALSO PERSIST AS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
   FRONT...MOVES SEWD INTO SE LA AND FAR SRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30558511 30188609 30238776 30098912 29559053 29669139
               29859186 30319177 31169126 32439015 33458854 32498523
               30558511 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2016
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