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Mesoscale Discussion 104
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND W-CNTRL PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260714Z - 260845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUST RISK OVER
   N FL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE
   IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA.  A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SUB-1000MB LOW
   NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WITH A DISTINCT FALL/RISE
   PRESSURE COUPLET OVER THE CAROLINA COAST AND NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  A
   COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE FL BIG BEND REGION WITH A MOISTURE
   AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
   WRN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA.  

   THE 00Z TBW RAOB SHOWED MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ACT TO STUNT
   BUOYANCY AND OVERALL STORM INTENSITY.  AN ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE
   LIMITING FACTOR IS MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IS FOCUSED
   FARTHER N OVER NRN FL AND THE GULF STREAM E OF GA/SC.  DESPITE THESE
   CONCERNS...A VERY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE SAMPLED BY KJAX
   AND KTBW WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS A FEW CONVECTIVE WIND
   GUSTS VIA VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE WIND GUST THREAT...AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS STORMS MOVE EWD OVER THE ERN
   GULF SHELF WATERS AND APPROACH THE FL W COAST.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 02/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26798427 28308337 29798238 30398187 30078127 29188155
               28478233 27398233 26908250 26298309 26798427 

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Page last modified: February 26, 2015
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