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Mesoscale Discussion 105
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...East-central AL and northern GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

   Valid 220846Z - 221045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat will continue to wane during the
   remaining overnight period across east-central AL, allowing WW 17 to
   expire as scheduled at 09Z.  A few strong to severe storms cannot be
   ruled out as ongoing storms in east-central AL spread quickly to the
   northeast across northern GA.  A new watch is not expected at this
   time with these latter storms.

   DISCUSSION...As forcing for ascent continues to spread into GA into
   early Sunday morning associated with a progressive, compact
   shortwave trough, the potential for new thunderstorm development in
   the short term will continue to wane in its wake across the
   remainder of WW 17.  This will allow this watch to expire as
   scheduled at 09Z.

   Meanwhile, storms across east-central AL (extending from Coosa
   County to Lee County and Randolph County) will need to be monitored
   for a potential increase in storm intensity and some severe threat. 
   Although this activity will advance quickly northeast across a more
   statically stable boundary layer, it will reside on the northern
   fringe of northward-advancing destabilization across southern GA. 
   This latter factor combined with steeper midlevel lapse rates
   (within the exit region of a 100+ kt 500-mb jet reaching the central
   Gulf Coast states by 12Z) should aid in some stronger storm
   development.  This will be aided by further strengthening of
   deep-layer winds and bulk shear. Isolated coverage of a
   severe-weather threat suggests a new WW is not warranted at this
   time into northern GA.

   ..Peters/Thompson.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31678642 32118653 33198643 33688616 33598527 33998424
               34068323 33838302 33078275 32658300 32438352 32288501
               31798543 31558565 31448599 31678642 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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