|Mesoscale Discussion 105|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected...East-central AL and northern GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...
Valid 220846Z - 221045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat will continue to wane during the
remaining overnight period across east-central AL, allowing WW 17 to
expire as scheduled at 09Z. A few strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out as ongoing storms in east-central AL spread quickly to the
northeast across northern GA. A new watch is not expected at this
time with these latter storms.
DISCUSSION...As forcing for ascent continues to spread into GA into
early Sunday morning associated with a progressive, compact
shortwave trough, the potential for new thunderstorm development in
the short term will continue to wane in its wake across the
remainder of WW 17. This will allow this watch to expire as
scheduled at 09Z.
Meanwhile, storms across east-central AL (extending from Coosa
County to Lee County and Randolph County) will need to be monitored
for a potential increase in storm intensity and some severe threat.
Although this activity will advance quickly northeast across a more
statically stable boundary layer, it will reside on the northern
fringe of northward-advancing destabilization across southern GA.
This latter factor combined with steeper midlevel lapse rates
(within the exit region of a 100+ kt 500-mb jet reaching the central
Gulf Coast states by 12Z) should aid in some stronger storm
development. This will be aided by further strengthening of
deep-layer winds and bulk shear. Isolated coverage of a
severe-weather threat suggests a new WW is not warranted at this
time into northern GA.
LAT...LON 31678642 32118653 33198643 33688616 33598527 33998424
34068323 33838302 33078275 32658300 32438352 32288501
31798543 31558565 31448599 31678642
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