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Mesoscale Discussion 106
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ...SRN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 152319Z - 160415Z

   SUMMARY...A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS
   EVENING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NY AND NERN PA. 
   RATES OF A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH PER HR ARE EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...NRN EDGE OF A LARGE PRECIPITATION SWATH IS CONTINUING
   TO SPREAD NWD WITHIN A WAA REGIME ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   INTO NEW ENGLAND...CURRENTLY FEATURING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW FROM LONG
   ISLAND/NRN NJ NWD. VERY COLD SFC AIR IS IN PLACE...WITH 23Z
   OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEENS TO LOW 20S F TEMPERATURES...WHILE
   TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 32 F ARE CONFINED NEAR THE COAST. WARM
   ADVECTION AT THE SFC WILL LAG THE NWD PROGRESSION OF A STOUT WARM
   NOSE FOCUSED WITHIN THE 850-900 MB LAYER.

   DUAL POL RADAR DATA FROM KDIX AND KOKX SUGGEST THE TRANSITION ZONE
   FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS ENTERING LONG ISLAND NY AS OF
   23Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. A
   SHORTER TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
   COAST...WHILE THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
   FARTHER NWD/INLAND AND WILL MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF
   SNOW/FREEZING RAIN. RATES WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
   06Z...GENERALLY AROUND A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH PER HR.

   ..ROGERS.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42747530 42997289 42837085 41857106 41427186 41297217
               41087296 40877415 40887476 41057550 41227583 42177598
               42747530 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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