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Mesoscale Discussion 107
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...INTERIOR SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 152004Z - 160200Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL
   DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE INTENSE
   CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE GAP
   BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD OFF THE NC
   COAST AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE NARROWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
   ANALYZED OFF THE VA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT
   DEVELOPS NEWD...WHILE STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS
   PENETRATING INLAND COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
   SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE ERN TIP
   OF LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 21-23Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL
   SPREAD FARTHER NE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS
   NEAR AND NE OF PORTLAND MAINE AROUND/AFTER 01-03Z. WITH THE STRONG
   ASCENT INTERCEPTING 50-100-MB-DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED
   AROUND H6...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
   EVENING.

   COASTAL MA AND VICINITY -- ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO
   PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD -- WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
   HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
   TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
   THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT...AND AN
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE
   RATES. RAIN MAY INITIALLY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER CAPE COD
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESCENDING WET-BULB FREEZING
   HEIGHTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A HEAVY WET SNOW BY EARLY EVENING WHILE
   SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS AOB H7 PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW
   AGGREGATION. ALSO...STRONG WINDS NW OF THE LOW TRACK WILL YIELD
   BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

   ..COHEN.. 02/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   41067154 41067221 42707129 44047012 45226840 45306737
               44796708 44486752 44066860 43686981 43217038 42507057
               42227056 42057033 42107017 41906994 41576998 41347044
               41067154 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2014
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