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Mesoscale Discussion 108
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF PA...MD...NRN VA...WV PANHANDLE...NY

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 160129Z - 160630Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
   ACROSS PARTS OF NRN VA...MD...THE WV PANHANDLE...AND SRN PA THROUGH
   LATE EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR
   FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO PARTS
   OF CNTRL NY...BY 06Z. RATES OF A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
   /LOCALLY HIGHER/ PER HR ARE EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION /MAINLY
   SNOW/ CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS PA WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME...WHILE
   SLIGHTLY DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
   PRODUCING PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL/NRN VA AND MD.
   REGIONAL 16/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT WARM NOSE CENTERED
   NEAR 850 MB FROM MD/NRN VA SWD...FAVORING A CLASSIC THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILE FOR FREEZING RAIN. THIS WARM NOSE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
   NWD ACROSS PA...AND SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN /AND
   POSSIBLY SLEET MIXED IN/ IN THE 02-04Z TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE COLD
   AIR ENTRENCHED NEAR THE SFC. THIS WILL ALSO OCCUR CONCURRENTLY WITH
   A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND OVERALL INCREASE IN FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION
   RATES...ESPECIALLY BY 06Z AND BEYOND. THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
   SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO PARTS OF CNTRL NY
   BY THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.

   ..ROGERS.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41497591 40677564 39817621 39047708 38797770 38907844
               39507920 40757926 41957878 42177816 42377721 42157606
               41497591 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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