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Mesoscale Discussion 108
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NERN MO AND ADJACENT SE IA INTO
   WRN/CNTRL IL...INCLUDING ST. LOUIS METRO

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 170826Z - 171230Z

   SUMMARY...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CONVECTION...INCLUDING
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE ICING
   THROUGH THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAY
   BECOME IMPACTED BY THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

   DISCUSSION...A RAPIDLY MOVING AND FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   IS NOW DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS FORECAST TO TURN
   EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY.  AHEAD OF
   THIS FEATURE...WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS
   WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A RETURN FLOW OF
   MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS A STEEPENING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT BASED
   ROUGHLY AROUND 700 MB.  THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE INTENSIFYING WITH
   CONTINUED VEERING AND EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE 50+ KT EAST CENTRAL
   PLAINS SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID
   MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING OF WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
   HEAVY RAIN RATES...AND TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH BY MID MORNING.

   AS THIS RAIN FALLS THROUGH A RESIDUAL SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
   SURFACE-BASED LAYER...ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF COLUMBIA TO KIRKSVILLE
   MO LINE...CONSIDERABLE ICING APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
   NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE
   HANNIBAL MO/QUINCY IL AREA...AND PERHAPS MUCH OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO
   AREA...MAY BE IMPACTED BY AROUND 12Z...BEFORE ACTIVITY CONTINUES
   DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
   THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.  GIVEN THE INITIALLY COLD GROUND
   CONDITIONS...EVEN LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
   RAPID GLAZING OF MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.

   ..KERR.. 02/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38459151 39339255 40099275 40879191 41129049 40598947
               39728878 39208888 38538900 38218996 38459151 

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Page last modified: February 17, 2014
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