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Mesoscale Discussion 108
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0108
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Southern AL and the western FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 221343Z - 221545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be coordinated shortly for an
   expected increase in the severe-weather threat across southern
   Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Observational data (including lightning trends, mosaic
   radar imagery, satellite imagery and surface observations) indicated
   thunderstorm development was underway from extreme southeast
   Louisiana to just south of the central Gulf Coast into the central
   Florida Panhandle.  Surface pressure continues to fall from
   southeast Louisiana into southeast Mississippi, where cyclogenesis
   is expected this morning.  A warm front extended east across far
   southern Alabama, marking the northward extent of a moisture-rich
   environment with surface dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 F.

   As deep-layer ascent with the approaching shortwave trough spreads
   across the central Gulf Coast region, storms will continue to
   develop within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared regime. An
   increase in low-level shear will support a threat for a few
   tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

   ..Peters/Thompson.. 01/22/2017


   LAT...LON   31898737 32068515 30998520 30158517 29778531 30168645
               30138794 30218808 30878816 31758821 31898737 

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