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Mesoscale Discussion 109
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL NC / S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL VA /
   DELMARVA

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 011343Z - 011715Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 0.05-0.10 INCH
   PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH 16-17Z.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROKEN-PRECIP SHIELD
   ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY. 
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA FROM N-CNTRL NC NWD IS AOB 32 DEG F
   EXCEPT ALONG NEAR SERN VA COAST WHERE THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE
   AIR MASS HAS LED TO TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.  THE 12Z GSO RAOB
   SHOWED A MELTING LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE
   LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL NC SHOW ONLY SLIGHT
   WARMING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 16Z.  AS A RESULT...A CONTINUATION OF
   FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED.  FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
   POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF HIGHER PW PER NC/SERN VA GPS PW DATA WILL ACT
   TO SATURATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER DELMARVA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL FAVOR SURFACE TEMPS
   BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORT MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE AS THE
   LAYER AROUND H85 WARMS.

   ..SMITH.. 03/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36217980 38407741 39027572 38567514 36897704 35787870
               36217980 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2015
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