Mesoscale Discussion 0109
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

   Areas affected...portions of the California coastline

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042247Z - 042345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out over
   the next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level trough and associated surface
   cyclone continues to meander off of the CA coastline. Recently,
   surface-based buoyancy has begun to impinge on the CA coastline
   south of the Bay area, with somewhere between 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE
   (shown by 22z mesoanalysis) preceding an approaching confluence band
   with gradually deepening convective cells. The CAPE profile is thin.
   However, lapse rates are steep, and both RAP forecast soundings and
   the latest MUX VAD shows a very long but slightly curved hodograph,
   with nearly 300 m2/s2 SRH in 0-1 km layer alone. With 50+ kt flow
   just off of the surface, any downward momentum transport within the
   low-topped storms may support a severe gust. A brief tornado also
   cannot be ruled out, though the relatively unidirectional shear may
   temper this threat somewhat. The severe threat should begin to wane
   with the onset of nocturnal cooling. The severe threat should remain
   isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 02/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MTR...

   LAT...LON   36962167 36582164 36572188 36902223 37562253 37752243
               37782227 37782209 37412183 36962167