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Mesoscale Discussion 110
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
   LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
   TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
   INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
   INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
   INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
   SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
   OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
   SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
   FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
   TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
   PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
   AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
   TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

   FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
   WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
   PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
   HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
               40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194 

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Page last modified: March 02, 2015
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