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Mesoscale Discussion 110
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / SC LOWCOUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160641Z - 160745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
   CONFINED TO SERN GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE REGION SHOWS A MATURE QLCS FROM
   THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER NNEWD THROUGH THE
   SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CNTRL SC.  THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS
   IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
   THE AL/GA BORDER VICINITY AND INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE
   MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
   --CONFIRMED THUS FAR IN REGIONAL 88D VAD DATA-- AND STRENGTHEN AND
   BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SSW.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE
   LINE OVER GA HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED AND ORTHOGONAL TO
   THE MEAN LOW- TO MID-TROPOPHERIC WINDS DURING THE PAST HOUR. 
   DESPITE THE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SC
   LOWCOUNTRY BEING ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE STRONG FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SQUALL LINE ORIENTATION MAY LEND
   THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...

   LAT...LON   31778172 32288170 32958117 33078048 32838004 31688118
               31778172 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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