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Mesoscale Discussion 110
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL TO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN
   INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 171730Z - 172230Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI...MUCH OF
   NORTHERN/PARTS OF CENTRAL IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...INTO
   NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. WITH THE
   HEAVIEST SNOW...RATES WILL EXCEED 1+ IN/HR FOR A COUPLE HOUR
   DURATION. ADDITIONALLY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND MIXED WINTER
   PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
   POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO
   NORTHWEST INDIANA.

   DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE/MODESTLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING WILL
   CONTINUE STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PROGRESSION OF
   THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DPVA/WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER
   JET EXIT REGION INDUCED DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL EASTWARD
   SPREAD OF RELATIVELY STRONG UVV ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/LOWER MI AND THE
   NORTHERN HALVES OF IL/INDIANA. SIMILAR TO 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS...REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY REFLECT AMPLE UVV
   COINCIDENT WITH A SATURATED MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW FOR A MULTI-HOUR
   DURATION...PARTICULARLY GIVEN INFLUENCES OF WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF IL/INDIANA.

   THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LINCOLN IL SAMPLED AROUND 60 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE BASED ABOVE 700 MB...WITH NEARLY 700 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER 12Z
   SPRINGFIELD MO. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER DRY SLOT
   AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT THUNDERSNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THUNDERSTORMS SUCH HAS BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY AT CHAMPAIGN IL /KCMI/
   AND IS OTHERWISE EVIDENT IN RADAR/LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA ACROSS
   CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL THIS MORNING.

   ..GUYER.. 02/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
   ARX...

   LAT...LON   40489074 41919066 43709094 44178939 43838810 42988573
               42048474 40868573 40168601 39138822 40098940 40489074 

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Page last modified: February 17, 2014
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