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Mesoscale Discussion 111
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0111
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0941 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221541Z - 221715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection spreading northward through parts of central GA
   may pose large-hail potential through the morning hours. Watch
   issuance is unlikely in the short term, but the severe risk will
   increase later today when Watches will be required.

   DISCUSSION...Positive theta-e advection in the low levels, beneath
   increasing deep ascent, will continue to foster northward-spreading
   convection through the late morning hours. Effective inflow layers
   will likely remain slightly elevated in the short-term. Regardless,
   the near-8 C/km 700-500-mb lapse rate and 70 kt of effective shear
   indicated by the Atlanta 12Z sounding suggest that semi-organized
   convection with robust updraft cores may produce isolated severe
   hail. Later today, additional destabilization and strengthening deep
   ascent will support increasing severe potential.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 01/22/2017


   LAT...LON   32088453 32618488 33458459 33658368 33478276 33098260
               32168286 32088453 

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