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Mesoscale Discussion 111
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 160654Z - 160900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS WILL MOVE ASHORE WRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN
   NEXT FEW HOURS...OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STG-SVR GUSTS...AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...0650Z COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SFC
   DATA INDICATE TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL LIFT
   SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION:  
   1. SERN GA SWWD ACROSS CTY AREA TO ABOUT 80 WNW PIE AND
   2. OVER GULF...ROUGHLY 40 WSW PIE TO ABOUT 175 WSW FMY.

   PRECIP INFLUENCES FROM GULF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
   INFLOW REGION OF SRN PORTION OF FIRST BAND...CONSIDERABLY
   SUPPRESSING SVR POTENTIAL N OF TBW REGION.  HOWEVER...SECOND/SRN
   BAND WILL PROCEED EWD 30-35 KT...MOVING ASHORE FIRST AROUND TBW
   REGION THEN FARTHER S ALONG W COAST TOWARD SRQ AND FMY.  00Z TBW
   RAOB CONTAINED SOME STABLE LAYERS ALOFT STRONGLY LIMITING
   BUOYANCY...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SINCE THEN
   AND SOME STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS INCREASED BUOYANCY
   OVER LAND.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE
   AROUND 500-800 J/KG WITH SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL...AMIDST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  EFFECTIVE
   SRH OVER REGION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 250-400 J/KG...BASED BOTH ON
   THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ON OBSERVED VWP FROM TBW AND MLB.  MLCINH
   APPEARS MINIMAL DESPITE SHALLOW/DIABATICALLY COOLED STABLE LAYER
   NEAR SFC...AND THAT COOLING MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LOW-LEVEL
   THETAE ADVECTION IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING SFC DEW POINTS MID-60S F
   AND KEEPING CINH WEAK.  THIS ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE
   SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SQUALL LINE...EVOLVING FROM
   CURRENTLY WEAK CONVECTION INLAND NEAR COAST. 

   THREAT FARTHER S AROUND MARCO ISLAND AND EWD ACROSS EVERGLADES TO S
   FL METRO IS MORE DISTANT IN TIME AND UNCERTAIN GIVEN NEWD EJECTION
   OF ERN CONUS LOW AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AWAY FROM THIS
   REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/VEERING OF FLOW POSSIBLE BY
   AROUND DAYBREAK.

   ..EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28128273 28278226 28378165 27928121 27378105 26898118
               25808169 26328183 26458195 26398204 26488220 26768230
               26958234 27378263 27628275 27848286 28008280 28128273 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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