Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 112
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 112 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHERN MO/FAR
   NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 041240Z - 041745Z

   SUMMARY...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON
   BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
   INTO SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR AS COLDER AIR TRANSITIONS
   SOUTHEASTWARD. AT LEAST SOME SLEET/LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
   EXPECTED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO.

   DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA EARLY THIS
   MORNING...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN TANDEM
   WITH A SHARPENING/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR/SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING REFLECT INCREASINGLY COLDER CLOUD
   TOPS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK INTO THE OZARKS.

   THE SURFACE WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE...WHICH LARGELY PARALLELS I-44 FROM
   OK INTO SOUTHERN MO AS OF 12Z/6 AM CST...CONTINUES TO STEADILY
   PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15-25 MPH. AS THIS TREND
   CONTINUES...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER NEAR-SURFACE AIR WILL LEAD TO A
   TRANSITIONAL COMBINATION OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK INTO
   SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR. 

   SCATTERED/BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...BUT A COOLING
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER /ROUGHLY 825-700 MB/ SHOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO A
   DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OF SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SNOW ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND
   SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
   /12Z/ UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SPRINGFIELD MO AND NORMAN
   OK...WHERE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WERE
   OBSERVED TO BE AS MUCH AS 1 DEG C COLDER THAN 06Z NAM/RECENT HRRR
   SOUNDINGS /FURTHER SUPPORTIVE OF A TREND TOWARD DOMINANT SLEET AND
   SOME SNOW/.

   ..GUYER.. 03/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37779041 37118941 36168979 35769333 34979536 35299665
               36669517 37779041 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 04, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities