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Mesoscale Discussion 112
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0112
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern GA...north FL...far southeast
   AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 221625Z - 221800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch
   issuance is forthcoming -- around 1730Z.

   DISCUSSION...A dangerous outbreak of tornadoes is expected to occur
   across parts of north FL, southern GA, and far southeast AL this
   afternoon. Air mass destabilization continues across the eastern
   Gulf Coast vicinity ahead of deepening surface low pressure near
   Mobile Bay. As the surface low undergoes rapid deepening along its
   east-northeastward/northeastward track, markedly strengthening
   low-level southerly mass fluxes will occur -- encouraging the
   development of moderate buoyancy south of a warm front branching
   east of the low.

   Present indications are that the ongoing warm-advection shield of
   convection from southern AL to GA will continue moving
   northward/northeastward, with the precipitation-flanking warm front
   to the south advancing northward. As this occurs, surface-based
   discrete and semi-discrete supercells will continue to spread
   northeastward and east-northeastward into the warm sector --
   initially developing along a surface trough/front extending south of
   the developing low into the Gulf. The related supercell-tornado risk
   will spread inland after 18Z. Very long, curved hodographs yielding
   400-600 m2/s2 of effective SRH, combined with MLCAPE around 
   500-1250 J/kg, will support the potential for long-track,
   fast-moving, strong tornadoes.

   The issuance of a long-lead-time Particularly Dangerous Situation
   Tornado Watch is planned for around 1730Z.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29888564 31178527 32128373 31958247 31058143 29818150
               28928295 29208446 29888564 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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