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Mesoscale Discussion 113
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND ERN NC / SERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161131Z - 161330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH E-CNTRL NC AND INTO
   PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.  A LOCALIZED
   WIND-DAMAGE RISK MAY MATERIALIZE BUT MAY BE CONFINED TO PATHS OF ANY
   MESOVORTICES THAT DEVELOP.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE QLCS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL
   NC AND SRN NC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION WHICH SHOULD AID
   IN LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND CONVECTIVE LINE MAINTENANCE DESPITE THE LACK
   OF DETECTED LIGHTNING FLASHES.  HOWEVER...THE PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY
   --PROBABLY 100-200 J PER KG MUCAPE AT BEST-- WITHIN A SATURATED
   COLUMN WILL TEND TO MITIGATE STORM INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THE
   STRENGTH OF FLOW AND WELL-ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF THE QLCS MAY
   SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1 OR 2 MESOVORTICES.  AS A RESULT OF THE
   MEAGER BUOYANCY...ANY LOW-PROBABILITY WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY BE
   CONFINED TO BE NEAR MESOVORTEX PATHS BEFORE THE QLCS MOVES THROUGH
   THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34127851 35497836 36547845 36667728 35037608 33847807
               34127851 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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