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Mesoscale Discussion 115
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0935 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NY...FAR NW CT...MA...VT...NH...SW ME

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 191535Z - 192130Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE NY SPREADING
   NEWD ACROSS NW CT...MA...VT...NH INTO SW MAINE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
   APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
   WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NY SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A PLUME OF
   MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40
   TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO
   NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALBANY NY
   SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
   JUST BELOW FREEZING. THIS PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW LATE
   THIS MORNING IN THE CATSKILLS. HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD
   ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
   HEAVIER BANDS. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS...A MIX OF FREEZING
   RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS IN
   MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY AS ALL SNOW
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42417233 41627387 41657475 41937503 42587477 43687335
               44627224 45127157 45547078 45497032 45156997 44696966
               44376964 44066996 43477077 42417233 

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Page last modified: February 19, 2014
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