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Mesoscale Discussion 116
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL UT...SWRN WY...NWRN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181746Z - 181945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG A COLD FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
   WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDER ALONG THE LINE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE OVER W-CNTRL MT
   WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO WRN UT AND SRN NV. SUBSTANTIAL
   PRESSURE RISES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH A
   NOTABLE RISE/FALL COUPLET ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS BOUNDARY
   SHARPENED...A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A
   NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SERN ID INTO NWRN UT. WHILE BUOYANCY
   WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY 30S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
   DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS...MODEST DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STRONG
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE WIND GUSTS COMMONLY IN
   THE 35-50 KT RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE PASSAGE. ISOLATED
   WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA IN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS THAT PRODUCE LIGHTNING...AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY SWEEPS EWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

   LAT...LON   39511328 40521260 41421221 42031146 42761044 42870989
               42900916 42840871 42620821 42040793 40960807 40460828
               39960875 39270965 38801041 38531135 38391243 38471341
               38861377 39511328 

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Page last modified: February 18, 2016
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