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Mesoscale Discussion 116
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST AND NW TX

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 042241Z - 050445Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   WEST AND NORTHWEST TX FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   PRECIPITATION RATES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS SHOULD REACH
   A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH A FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL AND
   EAST TX. SFC TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN WEST AND NW TX ARE GENERALLY
   IN THE 20S AND 30S F WITH THE FREEZING LINE LOCATED FROM NEAR DALLAS
   SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO AND WWD TO JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND.
   SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF
   THIS LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
   DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER WEST TX AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NEWD INTO THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS FROM MIDLAND TO
   ABILENE EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
   WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F. THIS TEMPERATURE PROFILE
   WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING AND SLEET ACROSS THE MCD AREA WHERE
   PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITHIN
   THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33319807 32639947 32320103 32330176 32840218 33600200
               34020047 34359851 33319807 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2015
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